'If it weren’t for Bihar and Uttar Pradesh': Sanjeev Sanyal flags a China-style fertility crisis

India’s birth rate is falling fast, and it’s time to end population control, says Sanjeev Sanyal, member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. With fertility now below replacement level, the real crisis, he warned in a post on X, is demographic decline.

India’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.9—below the replacement threshold of 2.1. “If it weren’t for Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, we would be well below the replacement rate. Even now, we are already below replacement levels, and without those states, the situation would be far worse,” Sanyal said in an interview to the \Mint newspaper. “This is a serious national concern that requires urgent attention.”

India, he argues, has entered a phase of demographic slowdown. The number of annual births peaked nearly 15 years ago.

“Whenever I mention school closures, it tends to trigger emotional responses,” Sanyal wrote. “But the reality is, in many regions—now more than half the country—schools simply don’t have enough children to remain viable. Classrooms are shrinking, and resources are being spread thin.”

Despite this trend, population control infrastructure remains in place. “Oddly enough, we still have population control departments operating,” he noted. “These are outdated and must be shut down, even in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Not only are birth rates declining in those states too, but we are increasingly reliant on them to keep our national fertility levels at a reasonable threshold.”

Sanyal warns that India is entering the same demographic transition zone that has challenged economies like China, Japan, and South Korea, where aging populations and workforce shortages have created long-term economic strain.

The demographic warning, he argues, is clear. India’s population control programs are relics of the past—and may soon become liabilities in a country where schools are closing, not overcrowding.