'India no longer a priority': US foreign policy expert says Trump sees it as rival, not partner

The $100,000 fee on new H-1B petitions wasn’t just a shot at Indian tech workers — it’s a signal. According to veteran U.S. foreign policy expert Ashley Tellis, the move reflects a deeper strategic shift in how Washington, and Donald Trump in particular, now views India: not as a partner, but as just another economic rival.

“You’ve got to think of it as a layered cake,” Tellis told The Indian Express in a wide-ranging interview. “At the base, there is definitely a shift in how Washington sees the world… In Trump’s view, India is no longer a strategic priority — it has become a ‘problem’ like many others.”

Tellis, who helped shape the U.S.–India nuclear deal in the early 2000s, says the current turbulence is not just about Trump’s temperament — though that’s part of it — but a structural change in U.S. policy thinking.

Trump’s approach to China is less geopolitical and more economic. And in that framework, India’s value as a counterweight fades. “Trump thinks of the entire world as economic rivals of the United States,” Tellis said. “That changes everything.”

The H-1B visa program, long a backbone of skilled immigration from India, is also on the chopping block. “The program as India once knew it is no more,” Tellis warned. Trump’s dual-track opposition — cultural and economic — is driving the shift. “There’s a growing discomfort with foreigners, especially from the global South, becoming part of the America of the future.”

Instead, the U.S. is moving toward a model of outsourcing talent — keeping Indian workers in India via global capability centers, not bringing them stateside.

On India’s muted diplomatic response, Tellis believes it was strategic. “The PM correctly recognises the U.S. bet is still the right one,” he said. Modi’s outreach in Tianjin with Putin and Xi? “Calculated theatrics,” he noted — more signal than substance.

As for the so-called “reset” after Trump and Modi’s September 6 call? Tellis remains cautious. “Call it a thaw, not a reset,” he said, outlining three tests: a trade agreement, a breakthrough on Russian oil, and Trump’s attendance at the Quad Leaders Summit in Delhi.

On Russian oil, Tellis said Trump wants Indian purchases at “zero — yesterday, not tomorrow.” He acknowledged the hypocrisy: “Indians rightly ask why the U.S. isn’t going after China. And they’re right.”

Still, he’s “cautiously optimistic” India can adjust just enough to defuse tensions and keep the broader relationship intact.

His advice to the new U.S. ambassador to India, Sergio Gor? Threefold: build trust with the government, engage beyond Delhi, and stay far away from India–Pakistan diplomacy. “That’s the third rail of Indian foreign policy,” Tellis said. “Touch it, and you get nothing but grief.”