The projections also show that Nitish Kumar's political somersault -- the fourth in about eight years -- is not likely to change the situation in both the NDA and INDIA camps drastically. 
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The projections also show that Nitish Kumar's political somersault -- the fourth in about eight years -- is not likely to change the situation in both the NDA and INDIA camps drastically. Despite the return of JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar to its fold, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to see a drop in seats in the Bihar Lok Sabha election, winning 32 of the 40 seats, as per India Today's Mood of the Nation opinion poll.
The INDIA bloc, which comprises the Congress, Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD and Left, is likely to increase its tally and win eight seats.
The Mood of the Nation's February 2024 edition is based on a survey of 35,801 respondents in all Lok Sabha seats. The poll was conducted between December 15, 2023, and January 28, 2024. Health warning: Opinion polls can get it wrong.
The Mood of the Nation poll was conducted between December 15, 2023 and January 28, 2024 and hence, doesn't take into account the recent political developments in the last few weeks and consequent changes in alliance arithmetic.
In 2019, the BJP, JD(U) and undivided Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) contested the Lok Sabha elections together, winning 39 of the 40 seats. The BJP won 17, JD(U) 16 and LJP six seats, dealing a blow to the Opposition. The Congress won only one seat, with the RJD drawing a blank.
In terms of vote share, the NDA is likely to see a marginal drop to 52 per cent from the 53 per cent it garnered in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The Opposition bloc is likely to benefit, seeing a rise in vote share by seven percentage points from the 31 per cent it secured in 2019.
The projections also show that Nitish Kumar's political somersault -- the fourth in about eight years -- is not likely to change the situation in both the NDA and INDIA camps drastically.
This time, the NDA in Bihar will have to accommodate several smaller parties during seat-sharing talks. While Nitish Kumar's JD(U) was part of the NDA in 2019, the LJP is no longer a single party. There are two factions -- one headed by Chirag Paswan and another by his uncle and Union Minister Pashupati Kumar Paras.
Moreover, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) of Jitan Ram Manjhi and Rashtriya Lok Janta Dal of Upendra Kushwaha are also now with the BJP. It remains to be seen if the BJP and JD(U) decide to contest a lesser number of seats to accommodate its allies.
Also read: BJP-led NDA alliance to get 72 of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, says India Today's MOTN opinion poll
Also Read: 2024 Lok Sabha polls: 'TDP-BJP alliance could happen any moment,' says YSRCP MP Raghu Ramakrishna Raju
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