Monsoon 2024 update: IMD predicts above-normal rainfall for rain-fed agriculture areas this year

India's core monsoon zone covering most of the rain-fed agriculture areas in the country are predicted to receive above-normal rainfall this season.

The Indian Meteorological Department on May 27 said that it expects above-normal rainfall in the country as a whole during the monsoon season (from June to September). “Quite confident that rainfall will be above average,” the IMD said. 

Quantitatively, southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India will likely be 106 percent of long period average with a model error of plus\minus 4 percent, it added. 

The IMD expects central India to see above-normal monsoon in 2024, with the entire country set to receive above-average rains, this season. 

Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal form the country's core monsoon zone where agriculture is primarily rain-fed.

The IMD director general said the country is likely to experience normal rainfall (92-108 per cent of the long period average of 166.9 mm) in June.

June and July are considered the most important monsoon months for agriculture because most of the sowing for the Kharif crop takes place during this period. 

The monsoon is critical for India's agricultural landscape, with 52 percent of the net cultivated area relying on it. It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water, apart from power generation across the country.

According to the Central Water Commission, water storage in 150 major reservoirs in India dropped to just 24 percent of their live storage last week, exacerbating water shortages in many states and significantly affecting hydropower generation. 

“La Nina weather conditions are seen developing during July-September,” the weather agency said, adding that India is “likely to experience normal rainfall (92-108 percent of the long period average of 166.9 mm) in June.” 

It added that the conditions for monsoon onset over Kerala are favourable and will likely take place over the next five days. 

“India’s monsoon core zone comprising most of the rain-fed agriculture areas likely to receive above normal rainfall,” the IMD said in its bulletin. 

“Below-normal monsoon rainfall predicted in northeast India, normal in northwest, and above normal in central and south peninsular India,” it added. 

With regards to temperatures, the IMD said India would see “normal to above-normal maximum temperatures in June”. 

In June, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except many parts of southern peninsular India, where normal to below-normal temperatures are most likely. Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except extreme northern parts of northwest India and a few pockets of east and northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are most likely, it said. 

 During June, above-normal heatwave days are likely over most areas of northwest India and adjoining areas of central India, the bulletin added. 

According to the IMD bulletin, the strong El Niño conditions observed over the equatorial Pacific at the beginning of this year have weakened rapidly into weak El Niño conditions and currently transitioning towards ENSO-neutral conditions. The latest climate model forecasts indicate ENSO neutral conditions are likely to get established during the beginning of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the monsoon season.  

“At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts from many global climate models indicate positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season,” it added.