Monsoon on pause: Dry air from west halts progress, IMD forecasts revival over central, eastern India by June 18

After arriving early over the Kerala coast — the earliest onset in 16 years — the southwest monsoon has hit a sudden pause. Since May 29, its march across India has stalled, held back by a blanket of dry air drifting in from the country’s arid west.

But relief may be near. Weather experts now say the rains are poised to pick up again by mid-June, potentially bringing showers to the parched central and eastern regions in the days ahead.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the southwest monsoon will advance into more parts of central and eastern India between June 12 and 18. The progress, which has been at a standstill since May 29, has been obstructed by dry air intrusion from the western and northwestern parts of the country.

This dry spell has smothered much of the subcontinent, halting monsoon movement. IMD data shows that rainfall between June 1 and 6 was just 19 millimeters — 3.4% below the long period average. The monsoon's northern limit remains stalled over Mumbai since May 26 and over Sikkim and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal since May 29.

The IMD has projected a pickup in rainfall activity, with isolated heavy showers expected over the northeastern states from June 9, and over southern peninsular India from June 11.

Despite the upcoming rains, heatwave conditions are likely to persist over parts of west Rajasthan from June 8 to 10, and in Punjab, Haryana, south Uttar Pradesh, and north Madhya Pradesh between June 9 and 10.

While June may see "excess" rainfall, the IMD last month reiterated its broader forecast of "above normal" monsoon rainfall for the June-September season. It also said there's a 90% probability that rains across this four-month period will range from normal to excess.

The monsoon had officially set in over Kerala on May 24 — eight days earlier than usual. Typically, the monsoon spreads across the entire country by early July and starts its retreat from northern India in mid-September. With 75% of India’s annual rainfall occurring during this period, the monsoon is critical for replenishing reservoirs, groundwater, and sustaining agriculture.

Thanks to the early onset, much of India experienced a relatively milder summer. The rain-laden winds generally reach Delhi by June 27 and cover most of the country by June end.