Trump is making biggest geostrategic mistake: Mearsheimer warns US could lose allies to China

American political scientist John Mearsheimer has warned that President Donald Trump's trade policies, particularly tariffs on Japan and South Korea, could backfire, driving two of America's closest allies into China's arms. Speaking in a podcast with Daniel Davis, Mearsheimer, a structural realist, pointed out that Japan and South Korea's proximity to China makes them vulnerable to its influence. 

"From a structural point of view, there are very powerful incentives for the Japanese and the South Koreans to ally with the United States no matter what," he argued. However, Mearsheimer highlighted the risks posed by Trump's aggressive stance, suggesting that the US could lose these critical allies. "If the United States continues to misbehave, if President Trump continues to slap our allies around - and here we're talking about the South Koreans and the Japanese - that at some point they will be forced to work out some sort of accommodation with China."

The concerns raised by Mearsheimer are in line with growing discontent from both Japan and South Korea regarding America's trade negotiations. A recent conversation revealed to Davis by a diplomatic insider disclosed that Japan and South Korea feel coerced into deals that benefit the US at their expense. 

"The guy told me about two particular issues with Japan and South Korea which were unhappy about how they're being treated by the United States in these trade negotiations and how they're being coerced and forced into deals that are definitely bad for them," Davis recounted. The sentiment was clear: the current deals are a "lose-win" situation for Japan and South Korea.

Mearsheimer further stated that the United States was pinned down in the Middle East and Ukraine. "And that has made it very difficult for the United States to fully pivot to East Asia to contain China." According to him, the US should be working to deepen ties with its East Asian allies, particularly Japan and South Korea, to counterbalance China's growing influence.

For Japan, the US has agreed to reduce tariffs from 25% to 15%, with that 15% being reciprocal. Seijiro Takeshita, Dean at the University of Shizuoka's Graduate School of Management, recently said, "It's not a good deal at all. People are focusing on numbers. You can see the Japanese market rising very sharply in back of this because many people had anticipated 25% and that's been reduced to 15."

"But this is the poker game that Trump delegates are playing," Takeshita said. "Be it 25 or 15 or 5% - if there is no context or reasoning to it, then it should be abolished. For example, automobile - Japan has zero tariffs against American cars. And he's constantly claiming that we're not buying American cars. Well, it's nothing to do with the United States, but simply US cars are not good enough for the Japanese."

Tariffs on India

Not just allies, Trump's tariff move risks losing a key strategic partner - India. As Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods coming to America, Evan A Feigenbaum, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, said that the US President was breaking the India-US ties built over 25 years. "After more than two decades of bipartisan effort to transform the relationship between New Delhi and Washington, including during his own first term, U.S. President Donald Trump is now in the process of dismantling this painstakingly built relationship," he wrote.