US intel on China's massive nuclear buildup: 'Warheads to cross 1,000 by 2030'

China has crossed the threshold of 600 operational nuclear warheads and is on track to field over 1,000 by 2030, according to a new intelligence report by the US Defence Intelligence Agency. "China’s nuclear warhead stockpile probably has surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads. We estimate that China will have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030—much of which will be deployed at higher readiness levels for faster response times—and will continue growing its force until at least 2035," the agency said in its 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment.

The rapid buildup is part of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) effort to create a diverse and high-readiness nuclear force capable of delivering both low-yield precision strikes and large-scale intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) attacks.

The PLA is moving toward deploying a greater share of its warheads at higher readiness levels to enable faster response times, the intel said. The force expansion is geared toward bolstering China's “deterrence” strategy to prevent an enemy first strike and ensure a devastating “counterstrike” capability aimed at an adversary’s military assets, population centers, and economic infrastructure.

“China’s current force modernization suggests that it seeks to have the ability to inflict far greater levels of overwhelming damage to an adversary in a nuclear exchange,” the report notes.

The nuclear buildup aligns with China's broader goals of asserting dominance in East Asia, challenging US global leadership, pursuing reunification with Taiwan, and achieving technological self-sufficiency. Chinese President Xi Jinping continues to lead a whole-of-government campaign to prepare China for competition with the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific.

In parallel, China is expanding its military capabilities across all domains — land, sea, air, cyber, and space — with the stated aim of meeting key transformation milestones by 2027 and 2035. These capabilities are viewed as critical to any potential campaign to seize Taiwan by force or counter US intervention in the western Pacific.

Russia and the US together possess almost 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons. As of June 2024, Russia had 4,380 warheads, while the US 3708, as per SIPRI.

The same US intelligence assessment notes that India considers China its primary adversary and views Pakistan as an “ancillary security problem to be managed,” despite recent cross-border military actions between both South Asian neighbors in mid-May.

Pakistan, meanwhile, continues to modernise its nuclear arsenal and reportedly sources weapons of mass destruction (WMD)-applicable goods through foreign suppliers and intermediaries. It also maintains a focus on securing its nuclear command and control systems, the report noted.

As per a June 2024 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India had 172 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan had 170. “India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2023. Both India and Pakistan continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery system in 2023,” the report stated.

"While Pakistan remains the main focus of India's nuclear deterrent, India appears to be placing growing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets throughout China," SIPRI said in its June 2024 report.

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