Stock picks for 2026: HDFC Bank, Groww, Lenskart, HAL among 12 top bets by Prashanth Tapse

As the year draws to a close, the domestic equity benchmarks are witnessing a resurgence, with the Sensex gaining nearly 9 per cent in 2025 so far, while the Nifty has gained 10 per cent year-to-date. With the 50-pack index hovering around the 26,200 mark and attempting to breach all-time highs, investors are now recalibrating their portfolios for the new calendar year.

Despite the festive cheer, the market has faced resistance at higher levels, often pushed back by selling pressure. However, Prashanth Tapse, Sr VP Research Analyst at Mehta Equities, says the "undertone has remained very positive." 

Looking ahead to 2026, speaking to Business Today, Tapse identified five key sectors—banking, capital markets, real estate, new-age businesses, and manufacturing—and lists 12 stocks that could deliver returns in 2026.

For 2026, Tapse assigned the highest weightage to corporate earnings recovery. He noted that Q3 earnings growth is a major factor, expecting it to be better than the first half of the fiscal year, driven by government reforms and GST cuts. 

Furthermore, he pointed to the US-India trade dynamics as a crucial trigger. "If something happens on a surprising basis, where we can get a cut of 25 per cent... that will create an immediate upside," Tapse said, adding that clarity on trade deals will help India compete better globally.

Strategy: diversification and gold

Before diving into stocks, Tapse recommended investors cut down the losses from the past year and increase allocation to gold and silver to hedge against geopolitical uncertainties. He emphasised moving away from a portfolio heavily skewed towards mid and small-caps. "We need to behave like a flexi cap fund manager," he said, suggesting a balanced rotation between large, mid, and small-caps.

Meanwhile, Tapse termed the banking and financial services sector as the "mother of every sector," recommending a 15-20 per cent portfolio weightage here. He picks two heavyweights, which are HDFC Bank and SBI.

"HDFC will have a lot of housing sector growth, which I am expecting in 2026 and 2027," he said. For HDFC Bank, currently hovering around Rs 995, Tapse sees a one-year target of Rs 1,100-1,120 with a stop loss of Rs 930. Similarly, for SBI, citing its reach in every nook and corner of India, he projected a target of Rs 1,100 with a stop loss of Rs 930.

With the Indian economy financialising rapidly, Tapse said owning the "proxy" to the capital markets. His picks include BSE, Groww, Angel One, and Nuvama Wealth Management.

"When you invest in BSE, you are actually buying the whole market as well," Tapse said, giving a target of Rs 3,000+ for BSE. For the newly listed Groww, which holds, he sets a target of Rs 200. He also sees value in Angel One with a target of Rs 3,000 and identifies Nuvama as the ‘best company’ for wealth management, projecting a price target of Rs 8,200 over the next 12 months.

Despite recent muted performance, Tapse bets on a revival in real estate, driven by interest rate cuts and infrastructure growth. He focuses on stocks with high corporate governance: Godrej Properties and DLF.

For Godrej Properties, he forecasted a target of Rs 2,400 (stop loss: Rs 1,940), and for DLF, he recommended the stock reaching Rs 900 (stop loss: Rs 630) from current levels.

Tapse is bullish on Ather Energy and Lenskart Solutions. He highlighted Ather’s strong IPO performance and Lenskart’s pan-India expansion and surprising earnings growth as key drivers for 2026.

Finally, playing the 'Make in India' theme, Tapse selected Dixon Technologies and Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL). He viewed Dixon as a beneficiary of global brands outsourcing to India. On the defense front, he backed HAL, anticipating potential joint ventures for aircraft manufacturing. "HAL can be one candidate which can be a right product, right partner for Russian JV in India," Tapse added.