Vijay's TVK heading for a majority in Tamil Nadu on its own, preparing to ditch Congress?

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Joseph Vijay has formed a coalition government in the state, but his intentions seem to be different. Vijay wants to run the government on his own as soon as possible. This could be a cause for concern for coalition partners, especially Congress.

On one hand, Vijay is implementing public welfare initiatives, while at the same time, demolitions are underway in the opposition camp without the use of bulldozers. Vijay's team of advisors is working on a strategy to learn from and implement the ideas of leaders across the country.

The Chief Minister has waived crop loans of up to ₹50,000 taken by farmers from cooperative banks. According to a government announcement, large farmers who have taken crop loans from cooperative banks will also receive a relief of ₹5,000.

Rajya Sabha debut, and preparations for by-elections

A by-election for a Rajya Sabha seat is scheduled for June 18 in Tamil Nadu. CV Shanmugam resigned from the Rajya Sabha after being elected to the Tamil Nadu Assembly seat from Mellam. Chief Minister Vijay is seeking to use the same seat to secure TVK's entry into the Rajya Sabha.

There is talk that TVK is considering sending retired IAS officer U. Sagayam to the Rajya Sabha. In Tamil Nadu, U. Sagayam is renowned for his honesty and strong stance against corruption in public life. His integrity is widely recounted.

Significantly, U. Sagayam is an officer who has been transferred 25 times in his 28 years of service. By sending U. Sagayam to the Rajya Sabha, Chief Minister Vijay wants to send a message to the people of Tamil Nadu about his actions against corruption, and by doing so, his predecessors, the DMK and AIADMK governments, automatically become targets.

In addition to the Rajya Sabha, the TVK leadership is also eyeing the by-elections to four Tamil Nadu assembly seats. One seat was vacated by Chief Minister Vijay Rupani himself, while three seats were vacated by MLAs who left the AIADMK to join the TVK.

AIADMK MLAs K. Maragatham Kumaravel, S. Jayakumar, and P. Sathyabama met with Tamil Nadu Assembly Speaker Prabhakar and submitted their resignations. Maragatham Kumaravel won the Madurantakam seat, P. Sathyabama won the Dharapuram seat, and S. Jayakumar won the Perundurai seat on AIADMK tickets. Dharapuram and Perundurai are considered traditional AIADMK strongholds, while Madurantakam is considered a key seat near Chennai.

This development comes at a time when discussions were underway to include some of the 25 MLAs supporting the TVK government led by C.V. Shanmugam in the cabinet. However, this plan was abruptly dropped under pressure from the Left parties, the VCK, and some TVK leaders.

The MLAs who resigned will now contest again under the TVK election symbol, the whistle. After winning the by-elections, they will become TVK MLAs, and no coalition partner will have any objections. The important thing is that this isn't going to stop there.

How long will Congress and TVK remain together?

The resignations of three AIADMK MLAs seem like just a trailer. Citing high-ranking TVK sources, the Indian Express reported that at least seven to eight MLAs could resign in the coming days.

TVK currently has 107 MLAs. TVK had won 108 seats, including two held by Vijay. Vijay vacated one of his seats. If it wins all the seats in the by-elections, TVK will have 111 seats. The majority mark in Tamil Nadu is 118. The TVK government has the support of five Congress MLAs.

If more MLAs resign and join TVK before the by-elections are announced, TVK's dependence on allies will decrease. It will become easier to get rid of the Congress, which has the highest number of seats, at five.

According to the report, senior TVK leaders believe that a first-generation political party built around a charismatic leader like Vijay cannot rely on post-election allies for long.

A senior TVK leader says, "If these seats go together, it will be very significant. When people feel that the government is stabilising itself, the public sentiment begins to change."

Vijay's strategy appears to be largely similar to that of Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. However, there are slight differences in the political dynamics of the two states. Omar Abdullah contested the elections in alliance with the Congress, while Vijay has formed a post-poll alliance with the Congress.

Congress allied with Omar Abdullah's National Conference before the elections, but did not join the government. Omar Abdullah also showed no particular interest in Congress. Gradually, the alliance became a mere formality. Congress has six MLAs in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. While Congress is nominally part of the ruling coalition, the party's position is similar to that of the previous DMK government in Tamil Nadu.

A similar example is found in Delhi. In 2013, Arvind Kejriwal also fell short of the majority mark. Kejriwal enlisted the support of the Congress to form his first government, but the Aam Aadmi Party had to wait until the next assembly elections to form a government on its own. Vijay wants to do this in Tamil Nadu in advance.

Is TVK leader Thalapathy Vijay's latest action similar to the BJP's 'Operation Lotus'?

In fact, the TVK's attempt to secure political support to form a government in Tamil Nadu began as a coalition effort, which even included the support of AIADMK rebels. However, a clear shift in strategy is now evident. What is happening now can be considered a political takeover. In the past, the BJP has been seen employing similar tactics in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, a tactic referred to as "Operation Lotus."

According to the Indian Express report, the way the ruling TVK is moving forward, many leaders in Tamil Nadu politics are privately considering it a much more ambitious project, and the TVK's objective is quite clear - now it has only one mission, to reduce its dependence on allies and move towards reaching the crucial figure of 118 in the 234-member assembly.