'Voting trends are...': Global investor Ruchir Sharma's big prediction for Maharashtra, Jharkhand

Global investor and author Ruchir Sharma, known for his keen analysis of political and economic trends, has predicted that voting patterns seen in Maharashtra during the recent parliamentary elections are likely to repeat in the upcoming state polls. Sharma highlighted that Indian elections often follow a recurring trend, particularly when state polls are held within six to twelve months of Lok Sabha elections.

Speaking with India Today News Director Rahul Kanwal about the upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, Sharma emphasized, “In Indian elections, a recurring pattern often emerges: when a state election takes place within 6 to 12 months of Lok Sabha polls, the same voting trends are frequently reflected in the state results.”

Sharma’s observations are drawn from historical election data. Referring to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, he pointed out that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance — consisting of Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP faction led by Sharadchandra Pawar, and Congress — secured 31 out of 48 seats. He suggested that this outcome could signal a similar performance in the upcoming Assembly polls.

When asked about the implications of recent election results in Haryana for Maharashtra and Jharkhand, Sharma noted that while momentum and public opinion may imply certain outcomes, each state election in India is distinct. “I don't believe in this momentum theory. If momentum was the issue, then the BJP would have never won Haryana, because the momentum was so against it. India's elections are inherently distinct, with each state’s voting behaviour influenced by regional issues, regardless of the national sentiment,” he said.

Sharma described the Haryana election as “possibly the freakiest election result I have ever seen in India.” He noted that neither journalists nor party insiders anticipated the outcome, stating, “Not one journalist who came back from Haryana said, ‘Hey, something different may happen.’” He added that even BJP insiders had no indication of an unexpected shift.

Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, Sharma predicted a close contest in Maharashtra, with a 50/50 seat split. He noted that while the Maha Vikas Aghadi gained ground, the real losses were incurred by BJP allies Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction and the Shiv Sena. His projections were largely borne out, as the Mahayuti alliance’s seat count fell dramatically from 41 to 17, with the BJP’s numbers dropping from 23 to 9 and the Shiv Sena’s from 18 to 7.

The Assembly elections in Maharashtra are set to take place in a single phase on November 20.