IMD points to a combination of a low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas, a monsoon trough extending across northern and central India, and several upper-air circulations driving the unsettled weather.
Odisha faces extreme rainfall threat
On August 23, isolated extremely heavy rainfall is likely over Odisha. Heavy to very heavy rain is also expected in parts of Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Telangana and Vidarbha.
Heavy rain is also forecast over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and several northeastern states.
The weather system driving the spell is a low-pressure area over North Coastal Odisha and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal and the northwest Bay of Bengal. The system was expected to move northwestwards across northern Odisha and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal over the following 24 hours.
Delhi-NCR and Uttar Pradesh
Delhi, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh face isolated heavy rainfall on August 23. East Uttar Pradesh faces a longer spell, with fairly widespread rainfall expected through August 26 and heavy rainfall possible during August 24-27.
The IMD's seven-day outlook shows rainfall activity gradually easing over East Uttar Pradesh after August 27.
August 24-25: Central & eastern India remain on alert
On August 24, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and Odisha. Heavy rain is also forecast over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, parts of Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Maharashtra and Vidarbha.
On August 25, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha remain vulnerable to heavy to very heavy rain. East Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Maharashtra and parts of the Northeast could also receive heavy rainfall.
August 26-27: Rain continues
The IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over East Madhya Pradesh and Odisha on August 26, with heavy rain also likely over East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of the Northeast.
On August 27, heavy rainfall is likely over East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand and several northeastern states.
Northeast remains wet through August 29
The Northeast is expected to remain active throughout the week. Arunachal Pradesh could see widespread rainfall during August 25-29, while Assam and Meghalaya and the other northeastern states are forecast to receive widespread or fairly widespread rain at different points through August 29. Heavy rain is also likely over the region on August 28-29.
The IMD has identified a low to moderate flash flood risk over parts of Assam and Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, as well as districts in Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, in its outlook valid until 5:30 pm on August 24.
Parts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand also face a low flash flood risk. Saturated soils and low-lying areas could experience runoff, inundation and localised flooding.
For farmers, the main concern is waterlogging. The IMD has advised effective drainage in fields, removal of excess water and postponement of certain farm operations where soil remains saturated.