West Bengal's fertility looks like East Asia: Sanjeev Sanyal warns recovery unlikely for 30 years

India's total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below replacement levels, a significant demographic shift with far-reaching consequences, according to experts Sanjeev Sanyal and Sayandeb Banerjee. In a piece for Business Today, the authors highlight that India's TFR has dropped below the globally accepted replacement rate of 2.1. While India's population is still growing, the peak in births occurred in 2001, with the number of births estimated to be around 23 million in 2024, down from a peak of 29 million in 2001.

The TFR, which measures the number of live births per female of reproductive age, is a critical indicator of population sustainability. For India, the required replacement rate is about 2.25, higher than the global standard due to the country’s unique demographic history, including a skewed sex ratio at birth and high infant mortality rates compared to developed nations.

The authors note that the global TFR is currently 2.2, with more than two-thirds of the world's population living in countries with TFRs below replacement levels. "The UN makes a fundamental assumption that countries with very low TFRs recover gradually to the replacement level. So far, no country with a lower than replacement rate TFR has made a recovery to 2.1," Sanyal and Banerjee write. 

The UN now agrees that, for countries with very low TFR, the recovery back to 2.1 is highly unlikely in the next 30 years, the experts wrote.  

This downward trend is not unique to India. China, with a TFR of 1.0 and life expectancy at 78, has seen its population peak at 1.4 billion in 2021 and is expected to decline to 512 million by 2100, according to Sanyal and Banerjee's estimates. Similarly, South Korea, with a TFR of 0.7, is projected to fall from 52 million in 2020 to 22 million by the end of the century.

The authors predict India's population will peak at 1.67 billion in 2055, earlier than previously estimated, as the country struggles with the dual challenge of low fertility and rising longevity. Life expectancy in India, which stood at 41 years in 1950, reached 72.5 years in 2023, marking significant progress but also contributing to an aging population and a higher dependency ratio.

The regional spread of the TFR decline is also stark. While wealthier, urbanized states in southern and western India have fallen below replacement levels, poorer states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand continue to support the national average. Amongst the 21 largest states, with more than 10 million in population, only three - Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand - have TFR above the replacement rates at 2.4, 3.0, and 2.3, respectively. 

"The relatively wealthier and urbanised states of southern and western India are now well below replacement levels. However, a relatively poor state like West Bengal also has a TFR of 1.6, a level that looks like East Asia."

The new UN survey on reproductive choices shows a high rate of population control in India, with 14% of Indians limiting their family size based on medical advice, compared to 5% globally. Sanyal and Banerjee argue that it is time to roll back all population control policies. "This should be done even in Bihar and UP, as they are now single-handedly supporting the national average."