India to post an 8% rise in electricity consumption in 2024: IEA

An unprecedented surge in electricity demand, driven by extreme heatwaves as well as strong growth in industrial and residential power consumption is expected to spike India’s electricity demand by 8% in 2024, said a report by International Energy Agency (IEA).

The mid-year update of Electricity Market Report by IEA released Friday noted that India, the fastest growing major economy in the world, is forecast to post an 8% rise in electricity consumption in 2024, matching the rapid growth it saw in 2023. Indian per capita electricity consumption is currently 20% of that in the European Union.

“This is supported by strong GDP growth and increased cooling demand due to long and intense heatwaves. In the first half of 2024, the country grappled with heatwaves of record duration, with peak load reaching a new high and putting exceptional strains on power systems. Assuming a return to average weather conditions, we expect electricity demand growth in India to ease moderately to 6.8% in 2025,” said the report.

In late May, India issued a heatwave alert as New Delhi saw temperatures soaring to 49°C. Just a day later, on May 30, 2024, India met an unprecedented maximum power demand of 250 GW driven by intense heat, expanding industrial activities, and heightened residential power consumption.

Terming the heatwave the longest ever in duration to affect the country, enduring for approximately 24 days in various regions, IEA forecast for a peak demand of 258 GW for the rest of 2024 is expected.

“In India, the drought conditions that emerged in 2023 following the onset of El Niño continued to have an impact in 2024, resulting in an 8% year-on-year decline in electricity generation from hydropower in the first half of 2024. As a result, amid strong electricity demand growth coal-fired generation was up by 10% in H1 (Jan-June) 2024. Gas-fired output rose by 50% during the same period,” it further noted.

The report highlights that coal-fired output is set to remain resilient in 2024 due to strong electricity demand growth, hindering a decline in global power sector CO2 emissions.

“Despite the rapid growth of renewables, the brisk increase in electricity consumption, especially in China and India, is resulting in the use of more coal-fired generation to meet demand. India and Southeast Asia will continue to post higher emissions from the power sector due to rising coal-fired generation,” it added.