Veteran economist Bibek Debroy thinks this is how India can become an upper-middle income nation by 2047

For India to become an upper-middle-income country by 2047, it has to work on its development agenda for the next 25 years and maintain a sustained growth rate of 7 to 7.5 per cent for the next 25 years, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Chairman Bibek Debroy said on Tuesday. While releasing 'The Competitiveness Roadmap for India@100', Debroy noted that productivity is a major driver of sustained prosperity. 

“The country can become a $20 trillion economy by 2047 at this growth rate of 7 to 7.5 per cent,” he said, adding that, “if you look at conservative real rates of growth, we can touch a per capita income of about $10,000.” 

As per World Bank, countries with a gross national income (or GNI) per capita greater than $13,205 is termed as high income; between $13,205 and $4,256 is upper-middle income; between $4,255 and $1,086 is lower-middle income, and less than $1,086 is low income. 

"With this calculation, India will be in the upper middle-income category, not a higher-income category," Debroy said, adding that it also means that the nature of Indian society will be completely transformed. 

At present, with a GDP of $2.7 trillion, India is the sixth largest economy after the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom.  

During his speech on the 75th anniversary of Independence Day this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi set a goal of making India viksit (or developed) by her 100th anniversary of independence. 

The Competitiveness Roadmap report, which was prepared by the think tank Institute for Competitiveness, headed by Debroy, has taken stock of India’s current poverty scenario and what was the impact of the pandemic in the last two years.

The report noted that despite robust prosperity growth in many sectors, India still faces significant poverty. About 20 per cent of India’s population is below the poverty line, which is a matter of concern. It noted also that the definition of poverty might change the exact number of people living below the poverty line.    

However, the report also highlighted that the numbers have significantly improved, almost 45 per cent, since the economic reforms were adopted in the early 1990s. It also said as per World Bank data, that the pandemic has pushed close to 75 million Indians from low income to poverty. 

“Though the poverty levels have fallen, inequality has significantly increased, especially since 2000," the report noted, adding the trend is more evident in urban areas. 

It is to be noted here that India was labelled as a third-world country after it got independence from British rule in 1947. In the last seven decades, the country’s GDP has grown from just Rs 2.7 lakh crore to Rs 150 lakh crore.