Monsoon update: Rains may arrive in Delhi on June 26, respite from heat expected, says IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday said that Delhi can expect its first showers of the monsoon season by June 26 (Monday). Despite the delayed start of annual rains due to various reasons, the monsoon has progressed swiftly and has covered many parts of Maharashtra, entire Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, northeast India, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, most parts of Himachal Pradesh and some parts of Haryana, an IMD official said. 

The maximum temperatures in northwest India are likely to go down by 4-6 degree Celsius over the next five days. 

"Conditions are favourable for the further advance of the monsoon over most parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, more parts of Haryana, including Chandigarh, Delhi, some parts of Gujarat, east Rajasthan and Punjab, during next two days," the IMD told news agency PTI.  

This year, the monsoon will hit three days earlier than last year. According to IMD data, the monsoon reached the capital on June 30 last year, July 13 in 2021, June 25 in 2020, July 5 in 2019, and June 28 in 2018. 

This year, the monsoon made its onset over the Kerala coast on June 8, which was around a week later than its usual schedule. It arrived in the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019 and May 29 in 2018. Following that, it has advanced into some more parts of Central Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, remaining parts of Karnataka, Telangana and Chhattisgarh, some parts of East Madhya Pradesh, some parts of Haryana and Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh, and most parts of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh on Saturday. 

Research has shown that a delay in the monsoon onset over Kerala does not necessarily mean a delay in the monsoon onset over northwest India. Also, it does not impact the total rainfall over the country during the season. 

Earlier this year, private weather forecaster Skymet predicted "below normal" monsoon in India in 2023 on account of El Nino conditions. The monsoon rainfall is expected to the tune of 94 per cent, with an error margin of 5 per cent, of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm. 

“Likelihood of El Nino is increasing and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large. El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon,"Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet, said. 

In contrast, IMD predicted a normal monsoon this year, with showers likely to be 96 per cent of a long-term average.  

It said rainfall during the June-September period is likely to be 96 per cent of the long-term average, with an error margin of +/-4% of the long period average. 

India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 centimetres for the four-month season beginning June. 

Northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall. East and northeast, central, and south peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 centimetres.  

Though the met department said there is a "high probability" of development of El Nino conditions during the monsoon season. However, the weather office said there is no one-to-one relation between El Nino and monsoon. 

El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. A poor monsoon is linked to El Nino activity. 

(With PTI inputs)

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