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Worse is yet to come? Coronavirus cases to peak in mid-November, claims study

Worse is yet to come? Coronavirus cases to peak in mid-November, claims study

The study also says that the coronavirus lockdown initiated on March 25 shifted the peak of the pandemic in the country by an estimate of 34 to 76 days which in turn helped bring down the number of infections

India has reported 1,53,106 active cases of coronavirus (as of 8 am, June 15) India has reported 1,53,106 active cases of coronavirus (as of 8 am, June 15)

An open-access story funded by The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has stated that the peak stage of COVID-19 in the country was delayed because of coronavirus lockdown, giving time for the healthcare system to prepare for the actual peak which is likely to happen by mid-November.

The study was conducted by Operation Research Group constituted by the ICMR and has not been peer-reviewed yet. The study also says that the coronavirus lockdown initiated on March 25 shifted the peak of the pandemic in the country by an estimate of 34 to 76 days which in turn helped bring down the number of infections by 69-97%. The time thus helped the healthcare system to build up infrastructure and gather resources.

Sources told The Times of India, that the study had a lot of errors and has not been validated by the ICMR. The study has some statistical discrepancies, for instance, the study says, "on May 6, after the end of six-week lockdown, the reported cases in India were 5,29,872 which were 47% of cases estimated by our model in a scenario of lockdown with 40% effectiveness".

However, according to the data provided by the health ministry since the start of the pandemic the country till now only has 3.32 lakh COVID-19 cases which is much less than the study had claimed.

Some finding of the study indicated that intensification of public healthcare surveillance measures with 60% effectiveness was predicted to reduce the cases at peak phase by 70% and overall by 26.6%. The requirement of ICU beds and ventilators would reduce by 83% with intensified public health measures.

Meanwhile, India has reported 1,53,106 active cases of coronavirus (as of 8 am, June 15), according to the Health Ministry. Total deaths stood at 9,520 .As many as 1,69,797 patients have been cured or discharged and 1 migrated.

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