HDFC Bank Q4 result today: PAT may rise by 7% YoY, NII may surge up to 9%

HDFC Q4 results: HDFC Bank is set to announce its fourth-quarter results today, with expectations of a significant financial upswing. Profit After Tax (PAT) is projected to rise by as much as 7% year-on-year, reaching approximately Rs 17,650 crore, according to IIFL Capital. Concurrently, the bank's Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to increase by up to 9%, potentially hitting Rs 31,640 crore, marking a robust performance in the Indian banking sector. These projections are detailed by several financial analysts, including Elara Capital, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), and Nuvama Institutional Equities, reflecting a positive outlook for the quarter. 

Analysts have offered varying forecasts on HDFC Bank's performance. Elara Capital provides a more conservative estimate with a PAT growth of 2.5% year-on-year, equating to Rs 16,918 crore and an NII increase of 7.8% year-on-year, reaching Rs 31,333 crore. On the other hand, Nuvama projects a 3.3% growth in PAT to Rs 17,050 crore, with an NII estimate of Rs 31,270 crore, up 7.5% year-on-year. These figures illustrate a consensus on the bank's improved financial health, despite slight discrepancies among the analysts. 

The private lender's asset quality is poised to show further improvement, driven by reduced slippages since the last quarter. Analysts note that the high base from Q3, known for Kisan Credit Card (KCC) impacts, is unlikely to repeat, leading to steadier asset quality metrics. Furthermore, the credit cost is expected to improve year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, complementing the bank's financial growth narrative. Additionally, brokerages are closely monitoring the bank's commentary on growth outcomes and Net Interest Margins (NIMs), as these factors will provide significant insights into future performance trends.

Brokerages highlight various financial metrics to watch. Nuvama, for example, projects the Pre-provisioning Operating Profit (PPoP) to decline by 14% year-on-year to Rs 25,190 crore but increase 0.8% sequentially. Meanwhile, IIFL anticipates a PPoP of Rs 26,610 crore, reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase and a 6% sequential rise. These variations underscore differing expectations regarding the bank's operating efficiency and profit retention strategies. Moreover, loan growth is expected to be moderate, with deposits showing a more robust increase compared to the previous quarters.

Expert insights suggest that HDFC Bank's focus should be on maintaining its deposit traction and optimising its loan-to-deposit ratio. A note from Elara emphasises the importance of these metrics, stating, “We expect the CD ratio to decline to within 94–95% levels. Expect broadly steady NIMs, but the interplay within LDR, LCR, and NIMs will be the key monitorable.” Such strategic focus is pivotal as the bank navigates a competitive market environment shaped by varying economic factors. Analysts will be paying close attention to how these developments unfold in the bank's subsequent fiscal strategies.

Besides HDFC Bank, on Saturday, April 19 2025, Yes Bank and ICICI Bank are also scheduled to announce results.

The banking sector is projected to announce subdued earnings for the quarter/year ending on March 31, 2025, attributed to steady loan and deposit expansion, challenges with net interest margins, and concerns surrounding unsecured and microfinance sectors.