Reliance Industries shares tank 3%, drag Sensex ahead of Q1 results. Here's why

Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) dropped 3 per cent in Friday's trade and contributed nearly a third or 270 points to the Sensex's 810-point fall, ahead of the Mukesh Ambani-led company's June quarter results. The oil-to-telecom major is expected to report a double digit drop in profit on a single digit drop in sales, thanks to weakness in the oil-to-chemicals O2C segment.  The stock fell 3.05 per cent to hit a low of Rs 2,523.35 on BSE. Post the demerger of Reliance's financial services business, the stock accounts for about 11.70 per cent of Sensex weightage from 12.77 per cent earlier. On Nifty, RIL's weightage has fallen to 10.03 per cent from 10.92 per cent.

JM Financial is pegging profit figure for the oil-to-telecom major at Rs 15,764.90 crore, down 12.2 per cent YoY. It sees sales at Rs 2,13,471 crore, down 2.7 per cent YoY. Kotak Institutional Equities sees consolidated profit for RIL to fall 14 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 15,417.70 crore for the June quarter compared with Rs 17,955 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Consolidated sales for RIL is seen falling 4 per cent to Rs 2,09,771 crore compared with Rs 2,19,304 crore YoY.

For RJio, this brokerage expects Ebitda to rise 15 per cent YoY (3 per cent QoQ) driven by 90 lakh overall net addition and a marginal increase in ARPU to Rs 181 from Rs 179 in the March quarter. For retail, Kotak sees Ebitda to grow 16 per cent YoY (3 per cent QoQ) on increased store footprint. In the case of O2C, Ebitda would likely decline 8 per cent, sequentially on auto fuel over-recoveries, Kotak said.

BofA Securities, on the other hand, sees consolidated profit at Rs 16,160 crore, down 10 per cent.

On a sequential basis, Prabhudas Lilladher said refining throughput may come in at 17 MTPA against 17.1 mt in March quarter. Petchem profitability will improve sequentially, due to demand recovery post China reopening. It expects Jio to show steady performance sequentially (2.9 per cent QoQ revenue growth and 1.5 per cent QoQ ARPU hike), while retail segment profitability should be resilient.

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