Timken India shares rise 7%, hit record high; what's next?

Shares of Timken India hit their record high in the afternoon session today. The record level comes three sessions after the bearings manufacturer announced its Q4 earnings on May 9.

Timken India stock zoomed 6.81% to a record high of Rs 3,740 against the previous close of Rs 3501.45 on BSE. 

Total 0.11 lakh shares of the firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 4.02 crore on BSE.  Market cap of Timken India rose to Rs 27,823 crore. 

Timken India shares are trading higher than the 5 day, 20 day, 50 day, 100 day and 200 day moving averages.  The stock has gained 17% in a year and risen 14.58% since the beginning of this year.

Total 0.11 lakh shares of the firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 4.02 crore on BSE. 

Timken India reported a 35.31% rise in net profit for the quarter ended March 2024. Net profit climbed to Rs 141.4 crore in Q4 against Rs 104.5 crore in Q4 of FY23.  Revenue gained 12.27% to Rs 908 crore in Q4 against Rs  809 crore in the Q4 of the previous fiscal. Timken India's revenue soared by 46.64% and profit spiked by 109.44% on a quarter on quarter basis.

Earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 stood at Rs 18.8, rising 35.47% year-over-year.

Abhijeet from Tips2trades said, "Timken India stock price is  bullish but also very overbought on the Daily charts with next resistance at Rs 3770. Investors should keep booking profits as Daily close below support of Rs 3416 could lead to a fall till Rs 2841 in the near term."

Centrum Broking valued the company at P/E multiple of 45x on FY26 EPS to arrive at a price target of Rs 3,670, which was breached today.

"We expect revenue/earning CAGR of 19%/25% over FY24-26 mainly led by (1) Strong demand from the railway industry, (2) Strong capex in the Process industry like Steel, Cement and Infrastructure, (3) Capturing the new opportunities, (4) capacity expansion to cater industry tailwinds and (5) China+1 will further add up to the revenue and earning growth. At CMP, the stock trades at a P/E of 52x/42x on FY25 and FY26 EPS," said the brokerage.

 Way2Wealth has an accumulate rating on the stock post Q4 earnings.

"As per the management,the export segment contribution which was on a decline in last few quarters (from 28% in FY23 to 20% in FY24) was due to the global economic slowdown and is likely to witness gradual recovery starting from Q1FY25 (peak expected from Q2FY25). It has plans to take export contribution to 25-30% in the next 2-3 years," said the brokerage.

"The rail products demand is likely to continue with introduction of new passenger and freight trains. Medium to long term growth prospects remain strong given the cyclical nature of end-product segments, expected improvement in domestic markets in coming quarters with newer opportunities in CRB and SRB segments and parent’s focus on improving sourcing from India. Hence, we continue to view it as ACCUMULATE stock trading at P/E 45.9x FY26E EPS of Rs 80.5," added Way2Wealth.

Kotak Securities has Retained ADD rating with a revised fair value of Rs 3,650 (target achieved) against Rs 2,800 earlier) based on 44X June 2026E EPS (40X FY2026E EPS). Increase in multiple is driven by strong earnings momentum over FY2024-27E, said the brokerage. 

In terms of technicals, the relative strength index (RSI) of the stock stands at 74.9, signaling the stock is trading in the overbought zone. Timken India shares are trading higher than the 5 day, 20 day, 50 day, 100 day and 200 day moving averages.

Timken India Limited is engaged in the manufacture of bearings, gears, gearing, and driving elements. The company has one primary segment such as bearings and allied goods and services for the automotive sector and the railway industry. It is into manufacturing, distributing, and sale of anti-friction bearings primarily tapered roller bearings, other roller bearings, components, accessories, and mechanical power transmission products for the diverse customer base.