Vedanta Q4 results on Thursday, April 25; analysts share earnings preview; things to watch

The Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta Ltd, whose shares are up 49 per cent year-to-date, is all set to declare its March quarter results on Thursday, April 25. Analysts said the Q4 print would be hit by lower commodity prices across major segments and lower volumes in the oil and gas division. All eyes would be on the management update on parent debt situation. The management guidance on future dividend payout and its comments on the demerger status, guidance on volumes and CoP across verticals would be key monitorables, analysts said.

Kotak Institutional Equities sees Vedanta reporting 34.20 per cent YoY drop in adjusted profit at Rs 2,038.70 crore compared with Rs 3,099 crore YoY. It sees sales falling 1.1 per cent to Rs 37,501 crore. Ebitda margin is seen falling 200 basis points to 22.6 per cent from 24.6 per cent.

"We forecast a 9.4 per cent YoY decrease in Ebitda due to weaker commodity prices across major segments, particularly in zinc. We forecast aluminum Ebitda to increase QoQ by 0.2 per cent (up 49 per cent YoY) primarily led by lower costs, oil and gas division to witness Ebitda decline of 4.5 per cent QoQ on lower volumes and Zinc India division to see 0.6 per cent QoQ decrease in Ebitda on the back of lower zinc prices, partially offset by improved volumes," it said.

Motilal Oswal sees profit falling at Rs 1,887 crore, down 39.4 per cent YoY. It sees sales falling 9.9 per cent YoY to Rs 34,186 crore.

PhillipCapital expects adjusted profit (after Minority) to be at Rs 1,548.80 crore. It sees sales at Rs 34,411 crore. This brokerage said Aluminium, Copper and Zinc International segments may report decline in volumes sequentially. Volumes for  iron ore could flattlish.

Nuvama sees net profit for Vedanta at Rs 2,230 crore and sales at Rs 33,230 crore. "Vedanta is expected to report an Ebitda uptick of 2 per cent QoQ driven by higher volume in zinc, offset marginally by prices and lower CoP in aluminium. Aluminium is expected to report an Ebitda uptick of 2.5 per cent QoQ . Zinc international is expected to report a normal Ebitda (2x QoQ due to low base)," said Nuvama Institutional Equities.

PhillipCapital said Vedanta may report a sequential decline in volumes in Aluminium, Copper and Zinc International segments. Iron ore volumes remains flat QoQ, it said.