Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 29 pts; key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are set to open higher on Thursday amid the weekly expiry of F&O contracts. The global cues continue to remain mixed while traders await for India Inc's earnings due next week. The developments around trade deal between the India-US shall also be keenly tracked by the market participants.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 28.90 points, or 0.11 per cent, higher at 25,575, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian shares were mixed on Thursday as investors braced for a key US jobs report. Nikkei shed 0.15 per cent, while Hang Seng plunged 1.15 per cent. KOSPI was up half a per cent.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects the market momentum to continue driven by healthy domestic macros and a supportive global environment. "We maintain a positive outlook on domestic-driven sectors such as financials, capital markets, agriculture-linked segments, and defence, which are well-positioned to benefit," he said.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended marginally lower. The S&P 500 gained 29.41 points, or 0.47 per cent, to 6,227.42 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 190.24 points, or 0.94 per cent, to 20,393.13. The Dow Jones fell 10.52 points, or 0.02 per cent, to 44,484.42.

The dollar is again under pressure, having caught some relief overnight. The dollar index was at 96.701, near its three-and-a-half-year low. The Treasuries market was tense before the data as a weak jobs report would send yields sharply lower. Ten-year Treasury bond yield slipped 2 basis points to 4.265 per cent on Thursday.

In commodities markets, oil prices were slightly lower after jumping 3 per cent overnight as Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog. US crude futures slipped 0.4 per cent to $67.20 a barrel while Brent was at $68.84 per barrel, also 0.4 per cent lower on the day. Gold prices eased 0.4 per cent to $3,342 an ounce.

While global markets continue to display strength, the recent pause in Nifty reflects caution, as participants await fresh triggers to resume the uptrend, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We recommend maintaining a positive bias while focusing on stock selection, especially in sectors showing relative outperformance, with an eye on the risk-to-reward ratio," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,561.62 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,036.68 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty & Sensex outlook

On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 25,500. A sustained move above this level could pave the way for a short-term recovery, potentially pushing the index towards 25,600 or higher, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "Conversely, a decisive break below 25,300 may open the door for a sharper correction," he said.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities said that as long as the market is trading below 25,500/83,500, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the lower side, the market could retest the level of 25,300/83,000. Further sell-offs may also continue, which could drag the market down to 25,225/82,800," he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a bear candle signaling profit booking at higher levels after recent strong up move, said Bajaj Broking. "The index is currently testing the immediate support area of 56,800-57,000. Going ahead, index holding above 56,800 levels on a closing basis will lead to a pullback towards 58,000 levels in the coming sessions," he said.

Nifty Bank formed a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart after failing to sustain above its rising channel, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities. The index is currently hovering just above its 9-day EMA and the channel midline, both placed around 56,800. A break below this zone could lead to further downside, he said.