$250 billion opportunity: Why Raamdeo Agrawal is betting big on quick commerce space

India is the fastest-growing major economy in the world and is currently in a sweet spot, said Raamdeo Agrawal. Within this strong economic 7 per cent growth, he said, consumer behaviour is evolving rapidly: similar to how value migrated in the past from public sector banks to private sector banks, or from wired phones to wireless. “The same shift is happening in domestic consumption,” he noted.

“Grocery buying has moved from the corner store to modern retail, and now to quick commerce.” According to Agrawal, many companies already see 7–15 per cent of their total sales coming from quick commerce, and that share is expanding swiftly.

He said the quick commerce component in grocery companies’ sales is growing at a rapid pace, supported by rising purchasing power and changing habits. “Many of us have forgone consumption in the past simply because we did not have access or reach,” he said. “Now, innovative forms of consumption are emerging.” 

Agrawal believes this sector, though still in its early stages, has strong long-term potential. “These companies haven’t made profits yet but have built scale, brand recall, and household impact. Over time, they could make more money than modern retail,” he said. 

If India’s grocery market grows to around $1 trillion in the next five to six years, and even 25 per cent of that shifts to quick commerce, it would translate into a $250 billion opportunity shared among a 3-4 dominant players. “It’s an exciting space,” he said. 

The interview was moderated by Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor of Business Today, along with Aabha Bakaya, also from Business Today. “Investing always involves odds, but in this case, I think the odds are in our favour. This sector could become a major part of the economy and the stock market.”

Meanwhile, in the same interview, Agrawal said the prevailing momentum in Global Capability Centers (GCCs) and the pace at which they are coming up will “stun everybody.” He noted that the information technology sector remains relevant but continues to face headwinds in terms of revenue growth. The market veteran said the IT sector accounts for about 14–15 per cent of India’s economy, a share that is likely to hold steady. However, he added that the sector may continue to stay on a slow track for some time.