Adani Ports: Buy, hold or sell? JM Financial shares target price for Adani stock

JM Financial Institutional Securities has retained its 'Add' rating on Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd with a target price of Rs 1,935, saying the Adani group firm could exceed its FY27 Ebitda guidance of Rs 2,500-2,600 crore.
On Thursday, Adani Ports shares were trading 2 per cent higher, tracking 19.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) jump in the company's August cargo volumes.

The Adani Ports stock opened at Rs 1,690.05 over its previous close of Rs 1,672.90 on the BSE. It hit a high of Rs 1,710 apiece, up 2.22 per cent from the previous close. The day's low stood at Rs 1,686.30. The stock's rise came amid a largely flat broader market, with the Nifty 50 rising 0.04 per cent in afternoon trade.

JM Financial said the August cargo performance was supported by a 25 per cent YoY increase in dry cargo volumes and a 15 per cent rise in container volumes. However, dry cargo growth was primarily driven by North Queensland Export Terminal (NQXT) in Australia, which started contributing to Adani Ports' overall volumes from the fourth quarter of FY26.

Excluding NQXT, the brokerage estimated underlying cargo volumes at around 46 million metric tonnes (mmt), representing growth of approximately 10.5 per cent YoY , compared with an estimated 7 per cent growth in July. JM Financial said this indicates an improvement in underlying volume growth.

For FY27 so far through August, Adani Ports handled 234.5 mmt of cargo, translating into a monthly run rate of around 47 mmt. Based on this pace, JM Financial believes its estimate of 565 mmt of cargo volumes for FY27 is achievable. It estimated underlying volume growth, excluding NQXT, at around 8.5 per cent for the full year.

However, the brokerage flagged weakness in the company's rail logistics business. Rail container volumes stood at 54,100 TEUs in August, down 5.6 per cent YoY. Volumes for FY27 through August were down around 33 per cent, which JM Financial said could indicate a loss of market share in rail container cargo.

JM Financial expects Adani Ports to potentially exceed its FY27 Ebitda guidance of Rs 2,500-2,600 crore. The brokerage estimates core EBITDA at Rs 2,620 crore, up 15 per cent YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 59.8 per cent for FY27.

The brokerage has maintained its 'Add' rating and target price of Rs 1,935, which implies about 16 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA. At the report's market price of Rs 1,648, the target represented 17.4 per cent potential upside.

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone is a ports and logistics company with operations spanning cargo handling and logistics. Its portfolio includes port assets as well as logistics infrastructure, with NQXT in Australia having become a contributor to its cargo volumes from Q4FY26.