Adani Power, Adani Energy, JSW Energy: Macquarie initiates coverage, shares targets

Macquarie has initiated coverage on Adani Power Ltd and Adani Energy Solutions Ltd (AESL) with 'Neutral' rating and JSW Energy with 'Outperform' rating. The foreign brokerage prefers NTPC in the power sector, followed by JSW Energy Ltd, Power Grid, Adani Green, Adani Power and Adani Energy Solutions.

Macquarie said the Indian power sector is undergoing a broad-based regulatory and operational reset across generation, transmission, and distribution. 

"India's power sector is undergoing a dual-track evolution, with coal continuing to anchor baseload stability (PLFs over 65 per cent) while renewables drive incremental capacity growth, supporting an expected expansion in installed capacity from 538GW currently to 900GW by FY32E," Macquarie said.

That said, the foreign brokerage believes that this transition hinges on rapid deployment of 74GW of energy storage to address intermittency and meet evening peak demand.

Macquarie upped its targets on NTPC to Rs 480 from Rs 475, Power Gird to Rs 400  from Rs 390 earlier and Adani Green to Rs 1,700 from Rs 1,320 earlier. For JSW Energy, its target of Rs 720 hints at 26 per cent potential upside. Adani Power's target of Rs 230 hints a marginal upside potential while target on ASEL at Rs 1,450 suggests 8 per cent potential downside. 

As a regulatory tailwind, Macquarie said the Draft National Electricity Policy 2026 signals a fundamental pivot toward market-based systems, repositioning coal as a flexible balancing resource rather than a rigid baseload. Legislative reforms like the Electricity (Amendment) Bill 2026 and the digital India Energy Stack aim to improve discom financial health and enable peer-to-peer electricity trading.

Macquarie noted that peak power demand has touched record highs of 271GW in May 2026, leaving minimal supply headroom and underscoring grid stress despite adequate base capacity. 

The CEA anticipated a 6 per cent power demand CAGR through 2030E, underpinned by strong industrial activity (50 per cent share), structurally rising cooling demand (driving over 20 per cent of incremental growth), and emerging high-load segments such as data centres and electrified transport, all of which are intensifying pressure on generation as well as T&D infrastructure.

"India is shifting toward a transmission-led capex cycle, with $51 billion in investment required by 2035-36 to resolve the geographic mismatch between RE-rich states and major demand centres. A structural gestation gap exists between generation (12-18 months) and transmission infrastructure (36-48 months), necessitating proactive
inter-regional corridor development," Macquarie said. 

It believes grid curtailment remains a tangible risk, as evidenced by the loss of 2,300GWh in late 2025 when mid-day solar surges exceeded the grid's absorption capacity.

Meanwhile, Macquarie said: "India's discoms are on a clear recovery path, with RDSS-led investments and smart metering driving efficiency gains - evidenced by AT&C losses falling to 15 per cent (vs 22 per cent in FY21) and the sector reporting Rs 2500 crore profit in FY25 after decades of losses. Improved billing, reduced leakages, and LPS-driven decline in overdue payables indicate materially stronger financial health versus historical levels," it said.