Bharti Airtel shares: Rs 20,000 crore m-cap gone amid target revisions by Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, others

Bharti Airtel Ltd shares fell 2 per cent in Monday's trade, eroding Rs 20,000 crore in market capitalisation amid target revisions by a handful of brokerages post its earnings call. Morgan Stanley has reduced its target on the stock to Rs 2,350 from Rs 2,442, and Jefferies to Rs 2,380 from Rs 2,400, while JPMorgan upped its target to Rs 2,290 from Rs 2,240.

The stock fell 2 per cent to hit a low of Rs 2,040.15 apiece. Its m-cap fell to Rs 12.80 lakh crore intraday from Rs 13 lakh crore on Sunday.

Jefferies said while India mobile missed estimates in Q2 due to lower-than-expected average revenue per user (ARPU) growth, stronger growth in Airtel Business offset this. "While lumpy capex impacted free cash flow in 2Q, outlook for FCF growth remains strong. We cut our FY27-29 India estimates by 2-3% and expect 13 per cent/14 per cent CAGRs in India revenues/EBITDA over FY27-29E. Maintain BUY with rolled over PT of Rs 2,380 based on 13x EV/Ebitda," Jefferies said.

JPMorgan said it has increased its estimates for wireless ARPU but cut subscriber addition estimate. "We believe growth in adjacencies, deleveraging and rising dividends should be the key catalysts for the stock outside of better-than-expected 5G
premiumization and tariff hikes. Remain OW," it said while upping its September 2027 target to Rs 2,290 from Rs 2,240.

MOFSL said the Bharti stock has performed well recently, with 20 per cent return since October 2026. Industry-wide tariff hike remains the key near term trigger, while a change in tariff construct to usage-linked plans could drive sustainable organic ARPU growth, even without headline tariff hikes, the brokerage said while suggesting a target of Rs 2,395.

While Bharti continued to execute well with a focus on high-quality subscribers, Emkay believes the risk-reward is unfavorable.

"The Street and we expect a tariff hike in 1QFY28, which remains the key monitorable. We broadly maintain our estimates across business segments. We maintain REDUCE and our SOTP-based target of Rs 2,000, keeping our target multiples for the India/Africa/Passive Infrastructure businesses at 12x/5.5x/7x," Emkay said.

ICICI Securities has increased its target to Rs 2,430 from Rs 2,410 as it pushed its tariff hike assumption to FY28 and upgraded estimates for Africa, which results in projected FY27 and FY28 EPS rising by 3-5 per cent each.