BSE share price targets: Buy, sell or hold? What Jefferies, UBS, JPMorgan say

BSE share price: Brokerages including UBS, JPMorgan, MOFSL and Centrum Broking maintained 'Neutral' ratings on BSE, while Jefferies and 360 One Capital retained 'Hold' recommendations after the stock exchange's June quarter results, citing a muted near-term outlook.

This is even as BSE continued to report new peaks in revenue and profitability, supported by improving institutional participation, derivative traction owing to market volatility, and structural expansion in STAR MF and index businesses. Recent trends reflect a declining volume trajectory across cash and derivatives, with geopolitical conditions easing out as well as possible impact of RBI tightening on proprietary book lending, said MOFSL.

"We have cut our earnings estimates by 9 per cent/8 per cent for FY27E/FY28E, factoring in higher opex trajectory and extrapolating the weak volume trajectory witnessed over the past few months. However, we have not baked in any impact from the RBI regulations on proprietary trading. We reiterate our Neutral rating on the stock with a target of Rs 3,900 (premised on 40x FY28E EPS)," MOFSL said.

Nuvama said high volatility helped BSE deliver Q1 index options average daily premium turnover (ADPTV) of about Rs 29,600 crore, up 2.4 per cent QoQ, driving revenue growth of 63.4 per cent YoY and 0.2 per cent QoQ. Higher sequential staff and technology expenses were offset by lower other expenses, resulting in operating leverage. This lifted the Ebitda margin by 24 basis points QoQ to 66.8 per cent. With five expiries in July compared with four for NSE, BSE's market share surged 519 basis points MoM to 37.6 per cent.

"Industry volumes declined due to recent regulation and, hence, we reduce our FY27/28 APAT estimates by 16.6 per cent/14.4 per cent, yielding a target of Rs 4,090 (earlier Rs 4,570), i.e. June 2028 PE of 45 times plus 15 per cent stake in CDSL. At CMP, the stock trades at FY27E/28E PE of 49.7x/41.4x; maintain ‘BUY’," Nuvama said.

Jefferies, UBS, JPMorgan targets
Among other brokerages, JPMorgan cut its target on the stock to Rs 4,090 from Rs 4,330 earlier. The target suggested 13 per cent potential upside. Jefferies upped its target on the stock to Rs 3,520 from Rs 3,440, which implied 2.7 per cent downside. UBS maintained its target of Rs 4,500 for the stock, suggesting 24 per cent upside potential.

Haitong International's target on BSE stood at Rs 4,060, Avendus Spark's at Rs 3,950, Centrum Broking's at Rs 3,940 and 360 One Capital at Rs 3,765.