Good news for India: Brent crude slips below $80 as hopes rise over US-Iran deal

Crude oil prices slipped below the $80-a-barrel mark as optimism grew among investors that the United States and Iran may soon strike a diplomatic agreement.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped 4.5% to $79.96 per barrel, moving below the key $80 level.

The decline followed remarks by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said Washington and Tehran could announce an agreement "today or tomorrow" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route that typically handles around one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

Adding to the positive sentiment, Qatari officials said a draft framework for a possible US-Iran agreement has been prepared. Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari said diplomatic efforts remain underway, with mediators including Qatar, Pakistan and Oman working closely to advance negotiations and exchange draft proposals between both sides.

Brent in $80–$90 range

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to remain in the $80–$90 per barrel range until there is greater clarity on the geopolitical situation, either through confirmation of a new US-Iran nuclear agreement or a significant escalation in tensions. The investment bank estimates Brent's fair value at around $80 per barrel, indicating that current prices reflect only a limited geopolitical risk premium despite lingering concerns over Middle East oil supplies.

The bank noted that while Brent prices eased after the US delayed planned military action against Iran and reports suggested progress in talks to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the underlying physical oil market continues to tighten. According to Goldman Sachs, global visible oil inventories declined by an estimated 6.3 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, driven by lower crude flows from the Gulf and Red Sea, reduced Russian exports and stronger import demand from Asia.

The bank also estimated that Gulf oil exports have dropped to around 36% of their pre-conflict levels, compared with nearly 80% in early July. Meanwhile, tanker activity in the Red Sea has weakened following disruptions linked to Houthi attacks, while Russian crude exports have also declined amid logistical challenges. These supply constraints could continue to support oil prices even as diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran improve market sentiment.

(With agency inputs)