BSE shares fall: Jefferies downgrades rating to 'Underperform', lowers target price  

Jefferies has downgraded BSE Ltd to 'Underperform' from 'Hold', citing concerns over the closing auction session (CAS), a higher securities transaction tax and the RBI's revised bank-guarantee norms. Analysts led by Supratim Datta said these factors could weigh on BSE's revenue from domestic proprietary traders.

Jefferies analysts noted that BSE's options average daily turnover has declined 12 per cent in August from the previous month, compared with a 14 per cent fall for unlisted peer NSE. It also said BSE's market-share gains beyond T-0 and T-1 days had been slow, Bloomberg reported.

Following the development, the stock fell 1.65 per cent to Rs 3,390. This was the fourth day of successive fall for the stock.

Jefferies cut its FY27-FY29 earnings-per-share estimates by 5-12 per cent and lowered its price target to Rs 2,940, implying around 15 per cent downside from Friday's close. Jefferies downgrade comes a week after 360 One Capital Markets and ICICI Securities suggested 'Hold' on the stock with targets of Rs 3,765 and Rs 3,530, respectively.

ICICI Securities on August 6 said BSE enjoyed strong prospects of volume growth across segments namely options, cash, and the MF platform, led by derivatives, which has been its key investment thesis for the stock. This, along with prospects of improvement in costs, led to quarterly Ebitda (ex-SGF) ascending from Rs 116 crore in Q1FY24 to Rs 1,210 crore in Q1FY27.

"Our estimates now factor in gradual systemic volume growth on base of lower July 2026 volumes (premium ADTV down 14.4 per cent/3.1 per cent from Q1FY27/Jun’26), leading to FY27/28E PAT of Rs 3,290 crore/Rs 3,810 crore. This leads to 14 per cent/9 per cent cut in FY27/28E EPS," ICICI Secuirties said.

Upside risk may emanate from continuous market share gains and better execution, while regulatory changes remain key downside risk, ICICI Securities said while suggesting 'Hold' on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 3,530.