'Buy' Coal India: 'Rising heat, rising demand...' - Check share price target

As summer sets in, so are the prospects for energy producers. Geojit Financial Services in its latest note, said the near to medium-term trigger as ‘rising heat, rising demand…’ for Coal India Ltd, highlighting that seasonal factors could accelerate power demand after a muted phase.

The brokerage expects a recovery in the company's coal offtake to offset its subdued performance from earlier in the fiscal year. Geojit noted that state-owned miner consolidated revenue slipped 5.2% year-on-year to Rs 34,924 crore, while profit after tax (PAT) dropped 15.6% to Rs 7,166 crore for the third quarter of FY26.

“Coal offtake reached 188.66 MT during the quarter; while this represents a 3% YoY decline due to a prolonged monsoon, the volume still reflects a continued prioritisation of supply security for the power sector,” Geojit said.

Amid a broader market downturn, the mining major stood out as one of just four Nifty stocks to end the month of March in the green.

Geojit also noted that tensions in Iran have sent global energy prices soaring, creating a highly favourable setup for Coal India to benefit from higher e-auction realisations as industries pivot from costly imports to domestic coal.

The brokerage has upgraded its rating on Coal India stock to ‘Buy’. The brokerage has raised its target price by nearly 25% to Rs 506 from its previous target of Rs 405 in August 2025. Valuing the stock at 6.3x FY28E EV/EBITDA, this revised target indicates a potential 12.38% upside from the current market price of Rs 450.25. 

“The company aims to increase their coal production to 1 billion tonne by FY28-29,” Geojit said, highlighting a 500 MW solar power pact in Uttar Pradesh and a strategic foray into critical minerals with a rare earth element block in Maharashtra.