'Buy' Hindustan Zinc stock: Why Ventura sees 65% upside in HZL shares - Target price

Ventura Securities has suggested a 'Buy' rating on Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) with a target price that hinted at 63 per cent potential upside. The fresh target captures the next phase of growth, supported by strong future growth visibility, improving price realisations, and rising demand for zinc and silver across key sectors. 

The stock has, after hitting a high of Rs 732.60 in January 2026, witnessed a correction of 31 per cent. It closed at Rs 502.20 on Monday. Ventura's 24-month target price of Rs 829 suggests 65 per cent upside over the prevailing price. 

Hindustan Zinc stands out as a globally dominant, lowest cost integrated zinc producer, with industry-leading margins, strong silver byproduct credits, and exceptional free cash flow generation, enabling consistent high dividend payouts and superior return ratios across cycles, Ventura said.

"We expect revenue to grow at a CAGR of 11.5 per cent to Rs 56,698 crore over FY25– 28E, driven by higher volumes and a favorable demand outlook. Segment-wise, revenue from zinc, lead, silver, and other segments is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8 per cent, 8 per cent, 14 per cent, and 3 per cent, reaching Rs 26,460 crore, Rs 5,085 crore, Rs 21,447 crore, and Rs 1,736 crore, respectively, by FY28," Ventura Securities said.

Among key reasons that Ventura suggested for investment in Hindustan Zinc, it said the company is market leader in zinc production with global dominance, noting it achieved its highest-ever annual production, reaching 1,095 kt of mined metal and 1,052 kt of refined metal in FY25. 

HZL, Ventura said, maintains a significant cost advantage, consistently ranking in the first decile of the global zinc mining cost curve. "This low-cost positioning, combined with its rank as the 3rd largest global producer, enables the company to maintain superior margins, remain resilient during commodity downturns, and generate strong cash flows," it said.

Ventura noted that HZL has increased its renewable energy utilisation from 13 per cent in FY2025 to 20 per cent in Q3 FY26 and is on track to reach 35-40 per cent in FY2027, aiming for 70 per cent by FY2028. It said the company has signed round-the-clock Power Delivery Agreements (PDAs) with Serentica, securing 530 MW of renewable capacity, which will significantly lower energy costs.

Besides, Ventura said HZL is positioning itself as a multi-metal enterprise, securing
licenses for transition-critical minerals, including Tungsten (Andhra Pradesh), Potash
(Rajasthan), and Rare Earth Elements (Uttar Pradesh).

Ventura noted that there is a strategic shift in revenue allocation, with dominance of Zinc, along  with rising contributions from silver and lead. 

It is expecting HZL to report FY28 Ebitda and FY28 PAT at Rs 23,491 crore and Rs 22,087 crore, respectively, driven by power cost optimisation and operating leverage. 

It sees HZL Ebitda and PAT margins to expand to 59.1 per cent (up 810 bps) and 39 per cent (up 860 bps). 

"While ROE is expected to moderate by ~350 bps to 74.2%, it continues to remain at elevated levels, reflecting robust earnings growth and strong capital efficiency," it said.