How have NTPC stocks delivered 232% return in the past 10 years?  

The National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) is pursuing growth through a balanced expansion across conventional and clean energy segments while maintaining a strong focus on fuel security, on-time execution and prudent capital allocation.|

Its shares outperformed Nifty by delivering 232% return since 2016 against the benchmark's 203% return during the same period. It issued a 1:5 bonus in 2019 and unlocked value for shareholders by listing its renewable energy assets separately into a new entity, NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL), in 2024. 

NTPC, under Gurdeep Singh, Chairman & Managing Director, currently commands 17% of India’s installed capacity and has a target of 60 GW renewable capacity and 22 GWh of BESS by 2032, declared roughly Rs 33,300 crore in cumulative dividends in the past 10 years (FY17-FY26 so far), data compiled from corporate database AceEquity suggests.

NPTC, it said, is now at an execution stage where it has already awarded multiple EPC contracts totalling Rs 1,572 crore.

How is it diversifying the portfolio?

The company, a Maharatna PSU, has been a coal-heavy generator for decades. Over the years, the NTPC has aggressively pivoted towards renewable energy, green hydrogen and nuclear power.

Its project pipeline tells a story of this change. There is over 33 GW of capacity under construction, comprising 16.5 GW of coal-based capacity, about 1.9 GW of hydro and around 15 GW of renewable energy. It is also working on coal gasification, which has the potential to operationalize gas assets continuously.

Over the past 10 years, NTPC’s installed capacity has more than doubled and now stands at 89 GW. It has emerged as the third-largest coal mining company in India.

Although power-sector stocks have re-rated in the past month on a power-demand pickup, Citi said they still have upside potential. None are materially exposed to merchant price volatility, the foreign brokerage noted on May 6.
Citi said NTPC is its top pick in the pecking order. It said duration and diversity of NTPC's regulated business and its multi-modal generation exposure, with a cost of funds advantage, positioning it well.

Why is the green energy business down?

Shares of NTPC Green Energy, however, are down 9% since listing in November 2024. Selling pressure also increased following the expiry of lock-in periods for early investors and promoters following the IPO.

Arun Kailasan, Research Analyst, Geojit Investments Limited, says the NTPC Green Energy’s post-IPO decline reflects a mix of profit-taking and near-term concerns around the capital-intensive nature of renewable energy projects, which typically have long gestation periods and pressure near-term profitability.

“The company remains well-positioned as one of India’s leading green energy platforms, targeting 60 GW capacity by 2032 through investments in solar, wind, and green hydrogen. While elevated capex and financing costs may weigh on margins in the near term, long-term structural drivers such as government support, clean energy mandates, and rising renewable demand remain intact,” he said.

Deven Choksey Research in a note on April 29 said NTPC has positioned itself as India’s major provider of firm and dispatchable power, in a grid that is shifting toward variable renewable generation.

What is NTPC’s nuclear energy roadmap?
NTPC plans to establish 30 GW of nuclear capacity across 14 states. It will be the biggest contributor to the country’s 100 GW nuclear power target by 2047. India’s present nuclear capacity is around 8.7 GW.

The company is advancing its nuclear ambitions through joint venture ASHVINI and subsidiary NPUNL, with the 2,800 MW Mahi Banswara project receiving environmental clearance ahead of its planned September 2025 foundation stone laying.

“Strategic partnerships with Électricité de France and Rosatom for PWR technology, along with Budget 2026 customs duty exemptions on nuclear imports through 2035, are expected to improve project viability and economics,” adds Kailasan.

(With inputs from Amit Mudgill)