ITC shares: Rs 307 a key short-term level to watch; here's target price

ITCLtd  may be setting up for a fresh upside move, but only after the stock clears a crucial technical hurdle. Market expert Pradip Haldar said the FMCG major is still forming a base below the Rs 300 mark, and a decisive, sustained breakout above Rs 307 could open the door for a rally towards Rs 340-350. Until then, the founder and CEO at PHD Capital sees the stock in a consolidation phase rather than a confirmed reversal.

Base formation still underway

Haldar’s assessment suggests ITC is not yet out of the woods technically, even though the broader business remains fundamentally strong. “ITC, if we look at the overall chart, is still building a base below Rs 300,” he said, indicating that the stock has yet to deliver a full confirmation of trend reversal.

That view is significant for short-term traders looking at a two-month window. In market terms, base formation often reflects a period when selling pressure is gradually absorbed, but without a clear breakout, upside conviction remains limited.

GST overhang still visible on charts

According to Haldar, the pressure on ITC began after the GST increase on the cigarette business, which triggered sustained selling in the stock. He argued that the impact of that overhang is still visible on the charts, with the stock continuing to trade in a consolidation band rather than entering a fresh uptrend.

“After the GST increase on the cigarette business, there has been continuous selling pressure,” he said, adding that the base is either still unconfirmed or in the process of being formed. That distinction matters because it implies patience may still be required before momentum traders get the breakout they are waiting for.

Levels that matter for traders

For traders positioning tactically, Haldar outlined a clear risk-reward framework. He pegged Rs 255 as the stop loss, while identifying Rs 307 as the breakout level to watch. “As soon as it crosses 307 and sustains, you could see a move towards Rs 340-350 again,” he said.

That makes Rs 307 the near-term trigger point for fresh bullish sentiment. A failure to cross that level convincingly could mean the stock remains range-bound for longer.

Solid business, but patience required

Even as he flagged technical caution, Haldar remained constructive on ITC’s underlying business strength. He said base formation can typically take one to two quarters, reinforcing the idea that the stock may need more time before a sharper rerating kicks in.

His broader message was unambiguous: “It is a solid business… there is no need to panic here.” For existing investors, that translates into a hold strategy, with near-term trading action hinging on whether ITC can finally reclaim and sustain levels above Rs 307.