Meesho shares at Rs 195? Ecomm player better placed than peers, says Axis Capital; here's why

Meesho share price today: Shares of country's largest e-commerce player Meesho are set for a 33% upside form current level. Axis Capital has a buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs 195. According to the brokerage, the firm is set to benefit from e-com growth driven by rising tier 2 penetration, leveraging its value play and and ‘affordability’ flywheel to drive user growth and order frequency. 

Talking about competition, the brokerage says that Amazon Bazaar and Shopsy are structurally constrained by seller base, catalogue and fulfilment economics inherited from higher-ASP models.

The brokerage's check also shows Meesho to be 31-37% cheaper on a 19-product basket costing Rs 1,600.

The brokerage believes that affordability, ads revenue and operating leverage should drive profitability for Meesho. 

"Meesho’s flywheel should help it deliver 29% NMV CAGR (FY26-30E). Rising ad percentage would lead to 25% revenue CAGR. Adjusted EBITDA margin to expand to 3.1% (FY30E), rising 620 bps  on operating leverage," said the brokerage.  

The company has a Asset-light model and negative working capital  cycle support free cash flow (FCF). 

Risks to growth

However, the brokerage expects three risks to its assumptions. 

They are (1) Lower growth in ATU and seller; (2) logistics costs not declining as expected; and (3) lower-than-expected improvement in ad monetization.

Meesho share price today 

In the current session, Meesho shares closed on a flat note at Rs 146.80. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 66,467 crore. 

Meesho share listing

On December 10 last year, shares of the Indian e-commerce platform listed at a solid 46% premium , after drawing bumper bids for its initial share sale.

Meesho share price opened at Rs 162.50 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) as against the initial public offering (IPO) price of Rs 111 — a premium of 46.40%. On the BSE, Meesho share price listed at a solid premium of 45.23% at Rs 161.20.

Meesho Q3 earnings 

The Bengaluru-based firm, in its first quarterly results post-IPO, reported a 12-fold year-on-year (YoY) rise in its net loss to Rs 490.7 crore in the third quarter (Q3) of the financial year 2025-26 (FY26) compared to Rs 37.4 crore in the same period a year ago. The company reported a loss of Rs 411.4 crore in the previous quarter, according to regulatory filings.

The firm reported a revenue from operations of Rs 3,517.6 crore, up 32 percent YoY from Rs 2,673.6 crore in the year-ago period. It had reported a revenue of Rs 3,073.7 crore in the previous quarter.