Nalco shares down 8% in two days: Target price as new alumina capacity seen driving growth

Shares of National Aluminium Company Ltd (Nalco) may have dropped 8 per cent in two days, Antique Stock Broking stayed positive on one of the world’s lowest-cost bauxite and alumina producers. Nalco delivered record alumina & aluminum production and sales volumes in FY26 and reinforced its strong operational and cost leadership, Antique said as it feels new alumina capacity to drive growth going ahead.

On Wednesday, the scrip shed 2.14 per cent to Rs 347.75 apiece. This was in addition to a 5.99 per cent fall in the previous session. The domestic brokerage noted that spot LME aluminum prices are currently 5.1 per cent higher than the March quarter average, and coupled with weaker rupee, should support margins in the June quarter. It may though be partly offset by firm caustic soda prices.

The global alumina futures contract prices are 3.1 per cent softer than 4QFY26 average, but should recover gradually, Antique said.

"Nalco's new 5th stream (1 mtpa) alumina refinery is likely to begin commissioning in 1QFY27 and contribute 0.2 mt of alumina in FY27. The management targets to increase VAP capacity over the next 3 years. Firm aluminum prices and additional alumina volume would aid topline, while reduced bauxite mining costs, coal cost advantage and rationalized employee costs would drive cost reduction and support margins," Antique said.

The brokerage maintained 'Buy' on Nalco with target price of Rs 463, assigning a target multiple of 6 times FY28 EV/Ebitda.

Antique noted that Nalco's FY26 employee costs declined 3.6per cent YoY and are expected to further rationalise with scheduled retirement of senior personnel, and lower manpower requirement for the 5th stream refinery, which should more than offset the per ton cost impact of pay revision (expected in January 2027).