Strong market bottom in place, investors shift to stock-specific bets: Abhay Agarwal

Indian equities may have already crossed their phase of maximum anxiety, with Piper Serica founder and fund manager Abhay Agarwal arguing that Dalal Street has likely built a durable floor after weeks of geopolitical stress, foreign selling and fears around energy supplies. His core message is clear: the market mood has shifted from capital preservation to selective deployment, with investors once again hunting for medium- and long-term opportunities.

From crisis overhang to market floor

In an exclusive interview to Business Today TV, Agarwal said concerns around the West Asia crisis were not misplaced, especially as India briefly saw pressure on oil supplies and the resulting overhang on multiple sectors. But he credited policymakers for navigating the disruption without allowing a full-blown supply shock to hit the domestic economy.

That policy response, combined with extreme pessimism already reflected in prices, appears to have reset the market. “I would imagine that a bottom, a strong bottom has been made in the markets,” Agarwal said, adding that the low point coincided with “very aggressive selling by the FPIs.”

Sentiment turns from fear to allocation

What stands out now, according to Agarwal, is the sharp change in investor conversations. Investors, he said, are increasingly discussing where to allocate money for “three year, five year ideas” and which businesses offer the best stock-picking potential.

That is an important shift for market structure. When investors stop obsessing over downside protection and begin evaluating future earnings visibility, it usually signals improving risk appetite and a broader willingness to underwrite growth again.

Thematic frenzy gives way to stock picking

Agarwal believes the next phase of the rally may look different from the last one. “A lot of interest has moved away from thematic plays into stock specific plays,” he said, suggesting that blanket sector narratives may now give way to sharper differentiation based on company fundamentals, execution and earnings durability.

For portfolio strategy, that implies a more selective market where alpha may come less from chasing fashionable themes and more from identifying businesses that can compound over three to five years. It also suggests that investors are becoming more disciplined after a volatile stretch marked by macro headlines and foreign outflows.

Why the mood matters

Agarwal’s broader assessment is that there is no deep-rooted panic left in the system. “Most of the investors are squarely focused on buying opportunities with a mid and long term perspective,” he said. Just as importantly, he added, “I don’t think that’s the mood” when it comes to fears of a market crash.

That constructive tone fits into a wider market narrative in which resilience, liquidity and bottom-up stock selection are beginning to matter more than headline-driven caution. For Dalal Street, that may be the clearest sign yet that confidence is returning.