Nifty March 2026 target at 24,970; RIL, ICICI Bank among top stock picks, says Nomura

Stock market: Nomura India in its latest equity strategy note for India suggested a March 2026 nifty target of 24,970 based on 19.5 times FY27 EPS of Rs 1,280. This is as the brokerage factored in a 5 oer cent cut to the prevailing consensus estimates. The foreign brokerage raised its target one-year forward valuation multiple to 17-20 times from 18.5 times to factor in the drop in yields, assuming no material increase in risk premium. 

"In case of a stable risk environment, we expect FII flows to be supportive after the intense sell-off in the past six months. Assuming a valuation range of 17-20 times, we expect market return of minus 9 per cent to 7 per cent over the next one year," Nomura said. 

Nomura India prefers Axis Bank, ICICI Bank State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, Godrej Copnsumer Products Ltd and Reliance Industries among largecap names. 

The domestic benchmark index has recovered its losses following the 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement and is now trading 2 per cent higher since April 2. During this period, domestic sectors such as consumer and financials have outperformed, while exporters—including IT, metals, autos, and pharma—have lagged.

Nomura said India has relatively outperformed amid global trade war uncertainties, owing to its lower direct exposure. Market sentiment is being buoyed by expectations of a potential trade deal with the US, and India stands to benefit from ongoing supply-chain diversification, the brokerage said. 

"We are relatively more positive on domestic sectors, particularly consumption and potential beneficiaries of supply-chain relocation. We are incrementally more positive on discretionary and autos, where there has been a significant reset of expectations and valuation correction. We are most positive on financials as the segment has relatively low earnings risk and presents
valuation comfort," Nomura said.

Nomura said it is also positive on discretionary, oil and gas, consumer staples, power, internet, telecom, real estate and select domestic healthcare plays. 

"We are cautious on export sectors and capex themes. These include IT services, industrials, cement, and metals. On pharma, ensuing US tariffs present near-term headwind, but we expect the impact to be passed on and hence a correction should represent a buying opportunity. We continue to recommend a bottom-up approach and would avoid stocks with very high valuations," it said.

Among stocks, other than the mentioned above, Nomura also likes Mahindra & Mahindra Torrent Power and Macrotech Developers among largecap names. Among small and mid caps, it likes Federal Bank, Marico Dixon Tech, Uno Minda, Lupin and Lupin, among others.