'Nifty may face late selling pressure, but...' - Stock expert Pradeep Halder shares market outlook

Indian equities may be showing resilience after fresh geopolitical nerves, but the market is unlikely to move up in a smooth one-way rally, according to market expert Pradeep Halder, who expects near-term consolidation to persist even as the medium-term outlook remains constructive.

Halder said the market has repeatedly demonstrated strength around lower levels, especially near 23,800 on the Nifty, even as traders remain wary of carrying aggressive positions into the weekend amid global uncertainty.

Support holds, but upside remains capped

The key takeaway from Halder’s market view is that the benchmark index is still trapped in a defined range. “Market ek tarafaa aapko shanti se upar aate hue nahi dikhai denge,” he said, underlining that volatility is likely to remain part of the trading landscape.

He identified 23,800 as a crucial support level that has held repeatedly, while flagging the 24,300-24,350 zone as an immediate resistance band for the Nifty. That suggests the market may continue to oscillate within a consolidation phase rather than break out decisively in the very near term.

Why traders may turn cautious by afternoon

Halder also pointed to a familiar Friday pattern: investors trimming exposure before the weekend to avoid headline risk from overseas developments. With concerns around global tensions still influencing sentiment, he said traders may prefer to lighten positions rather than carry short-term bets.

According to him, selling pressure could intensify later in the session if Nifty sustains below 24,115 on a 15-minute chart. In that scenario, he sees the index drifting toward 24,000 and then 23,950. For Bank Nifty, a sustained break below 57,650 could open room for a decline toward 57,250 and even 57,000.

Geopolitics driving sentiment more than positives

One of Halder’s sharper observations was that markets are reacting more strongly to negative global triggers than to constructive domestic or strategic developments. He noted that while positive developments such as India’s broader international engagement may not be lifting sentiment meaningfully, any external shock is being taken seriously by investors.

That asymmetry, he implied, is shaping current market behaviour: strong enough to avoid a breakdown, but not confident enough for a runaway rally.

Medium-term view stays constructive

Even so, Halder drew a clear distinction between the next few sessions and the next few months. “Do teen mahine mein koi problem nahi dikhai de raha hai. Do teen mahine ka view no doubt positive hai,” he said.

That suggests investors may need to separate short-term index volatility from broader portfolio strategy. While headline-driven swings could keep benchmarks choppy, Halder’s broader message is that the market structure remains healthy enough for a stock-specific approach over the next two to three months.