Nifty outlook for tomorrow, March 24: Gift Nifty surges 650 pts on Trump-Iran news - Relief for Indian stock markets?

Gift Nifty climbed nearly 3 per cent while Brent oil futures tumbled 7 per cent in Monday's trade, as the US President Donald Trump on a post on Truth Social said the US and Iran, have had, over the last two days, productive conversations regarding a "complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East."

Gift Nifty climbed nearly 1,100 points to hit a high of 23,533.50. It was later trading at 23,116, up 651 points or 2.90 per cent. Brent futures for May delivery fell below $100 a barrel mark briefly and were later quoting at $104.41, down 6.93 per cent.

Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which is expected to continue throughout the week, the US President said he has instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. 

The comments came as Nifty broke below its immediate support level on Monday, plunging over 600 points to signal bearish trend. Analysts said every bounce is being sold into and that despite oversold conditions, the selling trend is showing no sign of abating.

Trump had earlier in a  weekend ultimatum warned Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, following which Iran had retaliated with threat of retaliatory strikes on critical Gulf energy and desalination infrastructure. 

Nifty settled Monday's session at 22,512.65, down 601.85 points or 2.6 per cent. Nifty's breakdown has turned 22,800–23,000 into an immediate resistance zone, and unless reclaimed, any bounce is likely to be sold into, said Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities.  

"The index is now hovering near 22,500 support, a break below which could accelerate the decline toward 22,200, with broader structure reflecting continuation of the downtrend and lower-high formation," Dhameja said.

On technical charts, the momentum remains weak with RSI deep in oversold territory, indicating strong bearish momentum. Data showed India VIX surged 17.17 per cent on Monday to close at 26.73, highlighting elevated volatility ahead of F&O expiry. 

The sharp rise in volatility, analysts said, suggests wider swings and aggressive positioning from market participants.

Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities said Nifty firmly remained in the bears' grip, with every intraday recovery savagely sold off, particularly after breaching key support at 22,930. 

"Near-term floor now eyes 22,400, beyond which a breakdown could drag the index toward its 52-week low of 21,743; upside resistance has shifted lower to the 22,850-22,900 band," he said.

From a derivatives perspective, PCR near 0.66 signals bearish undertone, with heavy call writing at 23,000 capping upside, while Put writers shifting toward 22,500 and 22,000, marks immediate and major supports respectively. 

"With previous supports now acting as resistance and volatility elevated, sell-on-rise remains the preferred strategy, and unless 22,800–23,000 is reclaimed, downside pressure is likely to persist in the near term," Dhameja said," Dhameja said.