NSDL shares down 21% in 6 months; should you 'Buy'?

Shares of National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) were last seen trading 1.20 per cent lower at Rs 928.10 in Monday's session. At this level, the stock has declined 20.71 per cent over the past six months.

The company is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter results for FY26 on April 30. Alongside its earnings, NSDL said it would also "consider recommendation of final dividend, if any, on the equity shares of the company for the financial year ended March 31, 2026, subject to the approval of the shareholders at the ensuing 14th Annual General Meeting."

In the December quarter (Q3 FY26), NSDL reported a marginal 0.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit after tax (PAT) to Rs 77.9 crore, compared with Rs 77.5 crore in the same period last year. Total income grew 15.4 per cent YoY to Rs 198.7 crore from Rs 172.2 crore.

Brokerage firm Axis Capital has recently initiated coverage on the stock with an 'Add' rating and a target price of Rs 1,000. "We initiate on NSDL with ADD – reflecting high-quality, annuity-led franchises, but with measured upside due to margin headwinds, regulatory pricing impact (KYC), and moderation in issuer-led growth," it said.

Some market experts remain largely mixed on the counter's near-term outlook.

Kranthi Bathini, Equity Strategist at WealthMills Securities, said, "Depository services are expected to perform well for the company over the long term. Investors with a long-term view can continue to hold the stock, given the nature of its market infrastructure business. Fresh buying should be considered on dips. The stock has the potential to rally from current levels, with an expected upside of around 15–20 per cent over the medium to long term."

From a technical perspective, Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst at Angel One, said, "NSDL has recovered from its lifetime lows, moving above its short-term EMA after a prolonged corrective phase. The emerging structure suggests early signs of a potential reversal. Immediate resistance is seen around Rs 970, followed by a stronger zone in the Rs 1,020–1,040 range. On the downside, support has moved higher to Rs 900–880, which is expected to provide stability against any near-term weakness."

However, an expert advised caution. According to AR Ramachandran, a Sebi-registered research analyst at Tips2trades, "The stock is bearish on daily charts with strong resistance at Rs 947. A daily close below the support of Rs 925 could trigger a fall towards Rs 850 in the near term."

As India's first depository, NSDL is considered a key beneficiary of the country’s ongoing financialisation trend, with sustained growth in demat accounts acting as a structural tailwind for the business.