NSE IPO: MOFSL shares earnings growth estimates post Q3 results

MOFSL in its latest note on IPO-bound NSE Ltd said the stock exchange has a robust forward pipeline spanning the launch of a coal exchange, India-linked natural gas contracts, corporate and government bond index derivatives, pending SEBI approval, and new commodity offerings such as Brent crude and 10-gram gold. 

Additionally, products under evaluation, including SIFs and incremental commodity derivatives, provide multiple optional growth levers and enhance long-term revenue diversification, the domestic brokerage said.

The brokerage has raised its earnings estimates for NSE to reflect the current volume run rate, forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 15 per cent in revenue, 14 per cent in Ebitda, and 15 per cent in reported PAT over FY26‑28.

The largest domestic stock exchange reported a 37 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 2,408 crore for the December quarter. Total income fell 9 per cent YoY to Rs 4,395 crore, mainly due to lower transaction charges. On a sequential basis, NSE’s performance improved, with profit after tax jumping 15 per cent and total income rising 6 per cent, supported by higher trading volumes.

These were the first financial results announced by NSE after receiving SEBI’s no-objection certificate for its IPO, ending a decade-long regulatory overhang.

"Revenue mix was dominated by transaction charges (77 per cent of revenue), which grew 9 per cent QoQ (down 12 per cent YoY), driven by 3 per cent/8 per cent/15 per cent sequential growth in cash/futures/option premium ADTO," MOFSL said.

Transaction charges, the broking firm said, rose 9 per cent QoQ, led by growth across segments.

Equity options contributed 77 per cent to revenue from transaction charges, followed by the cash market (12 per cent) and equity futures (11 per cent). "Market share in cash, equity futures, equity options (Premium) and currency Derivatives for Q3FY26 stood at 93 per cent, 100 per cent, 73 per cent and 100 per cent against 92 per cent, 100 per cent, 76 per cent and 100 per cent in 2QFY26," it said.

The unique registered investor base grew to 12.5 crore, with total investor accounts of more than 24.5 crore.

"With strong early traction in electricity futures and improving liquidity across existing energy contracts, NSE’s rich pipeline of new products— including natural gas, coal, bond index derivatives, and additional commodity contracts, creates a clear runway for incremental volumes and structurally diversified growth going forward," MOFSL said.

NSE IPO, NSE unlisted price

NSE’s shares are trading in the Rs 2,080-2,100 per share range in the unlistewd market. The range implied a valuation of about Rs 5.1-5.2 lakh crore, an analyst at InCred Money told Business Today.

“NSE might come with an IPO in 7-8 months, with draft papers filed in about three months and a SEBI approval in the next 3-5 months. It would probably be the biggest IPO of the year after Reliance Jio Platforms, if they also come for listing in 2026,” the InCred Money analyst said on Saturday.