NTPC stock to cross Rs 400 mark? Strong capex plan, capacity guidance may boost sentiment 

Shares of NTPC, which have reported strong decent returns in the long term, are set for a 30% upside against the previous close. NTPC shares were trading 1.27% higher at Rs 339.15 in the current session against the previous close of Rs 334.95. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 3,28 lakh crore. 

Total 1.14 lakh shares changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 3.85 crore on BSE. 

The stock has risen 57.45 per cent in two years and gained 114.53% in three years. It rose 234.90% in the last five years. 

In terms of technicals, the relative strength index (RSI) of NTPC stands at 47.3, signaling it's trading neither in the overbought nor in the oversold zone. The stock is trading higher than the 5 day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 50 day, 150 day but lower than the 100 day and 200 day moving averages.

The stock has a high beta of 1.1, indicating very high volatility in a year. 

Meawhile, brokerage Bernstein has a target price of Rs 433 on the stock with an outperform rating. 

Citing the reasons behind its bullish stance, the brokerage said NTPC has raised its 2032 capacity guidance to 149 GW from 132 GW earlier which is a positive signal for the company's growth. The brokerage also said the state-run firm has a Rs 7 lakh crore capex plan till 2032. 

In terms of nuclear energy, the company has a strong emphasis on 30 GW target by 2047.  The firm is also confident on executing 6 GW renewable energy this year and 8 GW next year. 

Axis Securities has maintained its BUY rating on the stock with an unchanged price target of Rs 400. 

"We value NTPC using SoTP with the thermal business at 2.1x P/BV on FY27 consolidated regulated equity, RE business at CMP (NGEL) after accounting for the 90% stake and considering a 25% Holdco discount, PSP optionality at Rs 23/share, CWIP and cash at 1x P/BV of FY25," said Axis Securities. 

The company's capex plan of Rs 7 lakh cr at the group level will drive the growth in the regulated equity. The capex spend will include 31 GW of capacity currently under construction, 7.2 GW of thermal capacity additions, 52 GW of RE capacity additions, 2 GW of PSP capacity and 2.8 GW of nuclear capacity. 

The brokerage added that the captive coal production target for FY26 is 50 MT. NTPC targets 25% of its coal requirement through captive mining by FY30 for fuel security and supply reliability (from the current 15%). 

Last week, NTPC said the govt has approved investment of Rs 8,146.21 crore for construction of Tato-II Hydro Electric Project (HEP) in Shi Yomi District of Arunachal Pradesh. 

"Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs chaired by the Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi today has approved investment of Rs 8146.21 crore for construction of Tato-II Hydro Electric Project (HEP) in Shi Yomi District of Arunachal Pradesh," said NTPC.

The estimated completion period for the project is 72 months. The project has an installed capacity of 700 MW (4 x 175 MW) would produce 2738.06 MU of energy.