Oil prices: What is the current situation, latest price movements, what futures say about Brent price - Complete picture

Brent crude oil prices have remained volatile in the last one week, reacting to various developments around the US-Iran talks to end the impasse. Oil, which absorbed the maximum impact of the US-Israel and Iran war after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, slipped nearly 3% to $96.48 per barrel today on fresh signs of US-Iran dialogue despite rising tensions and a naval blockade.

Accroding to a CNN report, US officials are planning another round of talks with their Iranian counterparts before the current ceasefire expires, though final decision is yet to be made. The ceasefire will expire on April 21.

Oil slipping below $99 per barrel today comes a day after brent crude prices zoomed 8.31% above the $100 per barrel mark on April 12. The rally came after US President Donald Trump warned of a US blockade on ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, potentially restricting oil exports from Iran.

Brent crude rose to $103 while US crude touched the $104 mark.

Experiencing high volatility within a week, brent crude prices tanked 13.29% on April 8 after the United States and Iran agreed to a two week ceasefire.

Amid the ongoing efforts to reach a solution between the two countries, global markets too have remain volatile as supply disruptions continue and prospects of peace remain uncertain. 

On Monday, Trump said Iran "wants to make a deal". This statememt kept brent crude rates below $100 per barrel in two days.

But Morgan Stanley expects brent crude at $110 a barrel in the second quarter of 2026 and $100 a barrel in the third quarter. The rates could finally fall to $80 a barrel in 2027.
The bank said oil supply chains could to take months to normalise even if a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz can be achieved.

Sharing a much benign outlook, Goldman Sachs has pared its second-quarter 2026 forecast for Brent to $90 after the US and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.

In case, peace talks collapse and the ceasefire doess not hold and with persistent Middle East production losses of around 2 million barrels per day, Brent could reach $115 in the fourth quarter, it said.