Paytm bonus shares, Q1 results: 50% jump in profit? Earnings preview; 4 things to watch

One 97 Communications Ltd (Paytm) is set to report its June quarter results today, with its board also slated to consider the fintech firm's maiden bonus issue. Analysts largely expect Paytm to post 23-26 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in revenue, while profit is seen rising more than 50 per cent from a year earlier.

Investors will closely monitor four things: payment margin expansion, merchant lending growth, recovery in marketing services and management commentary on FY27 growth outlook. 

Paytm Q1 results preview
JM Financial expects Paytm to report revenue growth of 23 per cent YoY, driven by momentum in payment processing and financial services business. It estimated gross merchandise value (GMV) growth of 25 per cent YoY, supported by healthy merchant additions and continued traction in merchant subscriptions. JM said Financial services would remain the key growth driver, aided by increasing merchant penetration sizes leading to healthy growth in loan disbursements and sustained strength merchant lending commissions. 

"Marketing services is also expected to return to growth contribution margin to improve 40 bps QoQ to 55.7 per cent, supported by improving payment economics and partly offset by discontinuation of PIDF incentive. Strong operating leverage, indirect expenses growing well below revenue, should drive Ebitda up 19.4 per cent QoQ, with Ebitda margin expanding 85 bps QoQ to 6.7 per cent," JM said.

This brokerage expects adjusted Ebitda margin to rise 110 bps to 9.5 per cent and PAT to grow at 52.1 per cent YoY to Rs 122.50 crore. 

MOFSL in its Q1 preview note said Paytm's revenue from operations is expected to grow at a 26 per cent YoY or 7 per cent QoQ to Rs 2,410 crore. Contribution profit is also expected to grow strongly at 16 per cent YoY or 7 per cent QoQ to Rs 1,340 crore. The domestic brokerage sees contribution margin to come in at 55.5 per cent. Gross merchandise value (GMV) growth is seen climbing 27 per cent YoY or 5 per cent QoQ to Rs 6.9 lakh crore.
On a sequential basis, "we assume 4 per cent QoQ growth in Payments Services Revenue and 5 per cent QoQ growth in Financial Services and Others and arrive at an overall growth in revenue from operations of 4.2 per cent QoQ. We forecast Payment Processing Charges (PPC) as a proportion of Payments Revenue to be at 53.5 per cent, a metric that was 54.7 per cent in 4QFY26," YES Securities said in its Q1 preview note.

It arrived at a total expenses (excluding PPC and ESOP expenses) growth of 4.3 per cent QoQ, compared with a growth of 5 per cent in 4QFY26, resulting in an Ebitda margin (excluding other income and before ESOP cost) of 6.2 per cent, an expansion of 37 bps QoQ. 

YES Securities sees Paytm's Q1 net profit at Rs 188.40 crore, up 54.3 per cent YoY. Sales are see rising 23 per cent YoY to Rs 2,358.20 crore.  

Paytm bonus shares

Paytm said its would consider a bonus issue proposal, along with its June quarter results. If approved, this would be the maiden bonus issue by Paytm, which had 7,52,688 individual investors holding nominal share capital up to Rs 2 lakh as of June 30.

Paytm said it will hold its earnings conference call for investors and analysts on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, from 3:30 pm IST to 04:15 pm IST to discuss the financial results of the company for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.