Paytm Q4 results preview: Will the fintech player turn profitable? Check estimates & targets

Paytm Q4 results preview: One 97 Communications, the parent company of fintech platform Paytm, is set to announce its results for the quarter and financial year on Tuesday, May 06, 2025. Analysts tracking the stock are expecting the financial services player to turn at least break-even in Q4FY25.

Analysts tracking the stock are expecting Paytm to report a degrowth in revenues on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, while income growth on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) is seen healthy. Some analysts are expecting it to turn operationally profitable and even on a net-net basis as well on the back of sharp rise in the contributing margins.

YES Securities is penciling Paytm to clock a revenue of Rs 2,198.9 crore, up 20.3 per cent QoQ but down 3 per cent YoY. Ebitda is seen at Rs 15.2 crore, while net profit may come in at 36 crore as per its estimates. It is expecting an Ebitda margin of 10 per cent, an improvement of 1200 bps QoQ.

"We assume 6 per cent QoQ growth in Payments Services Revenue and 30 per cent QoQ growth in Financial Services and Others and arrive at an overall growth in Revenue from operations of 20 per cent QoQ, after factoring in UPI incentive. We also forecast Payment Processing Charges (PPC) as a proportion of Payments Revenue to be at 51 per cent," YES Securities said.

Ahead of its earnings, shares of Paytm dropped nearly 4 per cent to Rs 834.25 to Tuesday, commanding a total market capitalization slightly above Rs 53,000 crore. The stock has crashed more than 21 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 1,063, hit in December 2021. It is still 175 per cent above its 52-week low at Rs 310, hit in May 2024.

JM Financial is expecting Paytm to report a revenue of Rs 1,974.6 crore, up 8 per QoQ but down 12.9 per cent YoY. Ebitda loss is penciled to be narrowed at Rs 64.7 crore, while it expects Paytm to report a net profit of Rs 4.5 crore. JM has a 'buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,000.

"Paytm's payments business is expected to broadly be flat sequentially, while take rates are expected to decline due to increasing mix of UPI. Financial services business is likely to be driven by merchant loans, while personal loans will be a drag," said JM Financial.

"We estimate 1 per cent QoQ growth in GMV in 4QFY25. Revenue from operations is expected to increase by 15 per cent QoQ to Rs 2,090 crore, while contribution profit is likely to grow 23 per cent QoQ to Rs 1,180 crore. Contribution margin is thus expected to improve to 56.3 per cent. We expect Paytm to report adjusted Ebitda breakeven in 4QFY25," Motilal Oswal said.