Paytm shares: Will Payments Bank license impact stock price? | Q4 results date & preview

Paytm share price: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cancelled Paytm Payments Bank (PPBL) license. Consequently, Paytm Payments Bank is prohibited from conducting the business of ‘banking’ as defined This follows the RBI’s earlier directive in January 2024 prohibiting PPBL from conducting most services and allowing only withdrawals.

One 97 Communications Ltd, the parent company of Paytm, has a 49 per cent stake in PPBL  and the remainder is owned by Paytm’s founder, although Paytm had impaired its entire investment in PPBL in early CY24, and Paytm presently derives no revenues from PPBL operation.

Paytm share price

Shares of Paytm remained rangebound on Tuesday as the stock toggled in the range of Rs 1,120-1,140. The stock is down nearly 19 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 1,381.75, hit in December 2025. The stock has gained nearly 18 per cent in the last one month, while it has tripled investors wealth in the last two years.
 

Impact on Paytm stock
Paytm had received a third party application provider license from the NPCI to migrate its UPI operations from PPBL in March 2024, and decoupled other services from PPBL in 2024. Since Paytm and PPBL share a common brand, we await to see if there is any impact on Paytm’s customer and merchant acquisition/churn in the short term as a result of the RBI’s recent action on PPBL, said Goldman Sachs.

"Paytm has talked about potential relaunch of a wallet, which would require the company to obtain a Prepaid Payment Instrument license from the RBI. It remains to be seen if the RBI’s action on PPBL has any implications for Paytm’s potential PPI license application. Paytm and PPBL have had no common management/board members for the last two years," it said.

Echoing the similar tone, Emkay Global also does not see any financial or operational impact on Paytm, as commercial agreements with PPBL were terminated and the equity investment was fully impaired by March 2024. While the tone of the order is severe, Paytm is legally ring-fenced.

"Valuations at 29.8 times FY28E EV/Ebitda and 35.1 times FY28E P/E are attractive. Considering cash on books of Rs 12,900 crore, the long growth runway for payments and financial services, and various optionalities. We build in 24 per cent revenue CAGR for Paytm over FY26-28E. We see a long growth runway for the company," it added.

RBI had restricted this bank on concerns around its operations & since then wallet is shut; UPI handles are transferred; investment is written off; agreements terminated; and bank's board is reset & CEO is a former executive of IDBI, said Jefferies. "All of Paytm's services continue to be operational," it adds.

On the other hand, Bernstein said that given the history of regulatory actions against the business, this comes as an incremental negative development. Post the RBI restrictions on PPBL in early 2024, it did put in time and effort to terminate the interlinkages between PPBL and the core business, reconstitute the board, and take steps to potentially revive operations of the bank, it said.

"There is unlikely to be any impact on Paytm's numbers as the operations of PPBL have been suspended for more than a year and it has created a clear separation between the payments bank and the parent. Further, Paytm has already written-off related to its investment in PPBL, with no one-offs expected either," Bernstein added.
 

Paytm Q4 result date

One 97 Communications has not announced officially the date for its results for the quarter and financial year ending on March 31, 2025. However, the company may announce its results in the first half of May 2026.

Paytm Q4 results

"We have seen continued gains in both consumer and merchant market share, translating into an acceleration in Paytm’s GMV growth to 26 per cent YoY. However, the absence of PIDF incentives drives deceleration in our revenue growth forecast to 14 per cent YoY in Q4; while the Ebitda impact of this would be 200 bps, expect strong underlying Ebitda margin at 5.8 per cent," said Goldman Sachs.

YES Securities assumes 6.4 per cent QoQ growth in Payments Services Revenue and 8 per cent QoQ growth in Financial Services and others and arrive at an overall growth in revenue from operations of 3.4 per cent QoQ. It forecasted Payment Processing Charges (PPC) as a proportion of Payments Revenue to be at 50 per cent, a metric that was 56.3 per cent in 3QFY26.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects flat revenue growth in Q4, while contribution margin expected to remain steady at 56 per cent. GMV growth is likely to remain healthy (4 per cent QoQ) and it also expects steady addition in merchants.

Paytm shares target price
The latest development could be seen as clearing the way for the company to apply for a NBFC or PPI license which can pave way for certain payments products (e.g. wallet) and credit products to be offered by Paytm, said Bernstein which has an 'outperform' rating on Paytm with a target price of Rs 1,500.

Goldman Sachs has a 'buy' rating on Paytm with a trimmed target price of Rs 1,400, while Emkay Global also has the same rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,500. Jefferies and YES Securities have a 'buy' rating on Paytm with a target price of Rs 1,350 and Rs 1,300, respectively. However, Motilal Oswal has a 'neutral' rating on Paytm with a target price of Rs 1,150.