PM Modi's message, Putin's New Delhi visit: India on Russia's side? What Jefferies says

Jefferies' Christopher Wood in his latest GREED & fear note talked about recent developments including Russian President Vladimir Putin's New Delhi visit, and the US President Donald Trump's military funding cut for Ukraine.  

Wood said Putin’s visit to India does not mean that Delhi is on Russia’s side. What it does mean is that the Modi government is sending the message that it maintains its non-aligned status and is not going to allow itself to be pushed around serving the imperial interests of other powers, Wood said in the note. 

The views come at a time geopolitical issues such as wars and trade issues are keeping stock market investors jittery globally, with India being levied 50 per cent import dutities by the US due to its purchase of Russian oil.  

On Thursday, PM Modi shared some details of his conversation with Donald Trump in a tweet, calling it "warm and engaging."  He said the two countries reviewed the progress in bilateral relations and discussed regional and international developments.

India and the US will continue to work together for global peace, stability and prosperity,” PM Modi.

Jefferies' Wood noted that Putin is depicted continuously as an Austin Powers 'Dr Evil' figure in the Western media as contrasts with his official visit to Delhi on December 4-5. Wood said GREED & fear it was interesting to see Putin interviews in Kremlin by Indian journalists ahead of the trip, an occasion which allowed him to give his view on the “special military operation”. 

That, he said, is of course that the Ukraine conflict originated in what Russia regards as the Maidan coup back in February 2014.

Meanwhile, the foreign brokerage said the news that Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not accompany Trump’s Special Envoy for Peace Steven Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner on the trip to Moscow on December 2 was a sign that no agreement was immediately forthcoming. It noted that Trump’s patience with the Ukrainian government is clearly wearing thin as reflected in his comment on November 23 that Kyiv has shown “zero gratitude” for US support.

"With the 47th US president having cut off military funding for Ukraine since March, the Europeans essentially need at least €100bn a year to continue to finance a war which they as yet show no sign of wanting to participate in directly. This is essentially money the Eurozone does not have," Wood said.

GREED & fear said the pressure remains on the Ukrainians to be more realistic, which is why Washington is prepared to engage with Moscow in terms of holding bilateral discussions. 

"But that is clearly not the attitude of the Europeans, which is why there is a real risk that markets will have to contend at some point with what meant to be called a semi-nuclear standoff from which GREED & fear assumes, and certainly hopes, that Brussels will back down," Jefferies' Wood said.