Reliance Q4 results: 'Jio IPO is…' — Analysts see upto 45% rise in RIL share price- here’s why

Brokerage firms continue to remain positive on Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) even after a muted set of numbers in the March 2026 quarter. Majority of the analysts have maintained their 'buy' rating on it, with top targets suggesting up to 45 per cent upside potential in the stock. A host of brokerage firms believe that Jio Platforms' awaited IPO shall be the biggest trigger for it.
 

Jio Platforms Q4 results
IPO-bound Jio Platforms, the digital arm of Reliance Industries reported a 13 per cent rise on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in the net profit to Rs 7,935 crore for the quarter ended on March 31, 2026.  Its quarterly revenue of Rs 44,928 crore in the fourth quarter of FY26, up 12.7 per cent YoY, while quarterly Ebitda rose 17.9 per cent YoY to Rs 20,060 crore. 

Its APRU (average revenue per user) increased 3.8 per cent YoY to Rs 214, which was Rs 206.2 a year ago. Jio Platform's customer base stood at Rs 52.44 crore, up 7.4 per cent YoY. Data traffic reported a 35 per cent YoY growth to 66 billion GB, while voice traffic inched up 3.4 per cent to 1.54 trillion minutes.
 

Jio Platforms IPO & experts takes on RIL
RJio’s standalone revenue grew 2 per cent QoQ, driven by 9.1 million subscriber net adds. ARPU remained stable, despite two fewer days QoQ and Ebitda grew 2 million QoQ, driven by lower network opex and margins expanded 10 bps to 4.3 per cent incremental with ebitda margins coming in at 59 per cent, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

JPL’s non-mobility revenue and Ebitda continued to see acceleration, with 8 per cent and 44 per cent QoQ growth, benefitting from rising FWA base and traction in B2B. FY26 cash capex declined 20 per cent YoY to Rs 37,200 crore, while gross block additions in FY26 declined modestly to Rs 41,200 crore. FY26 FCF improved significantly to Rs 21,300 crore, said Motilal Oswal

"Management expects 4-5 per cent YoY ARPU growth, driven by customer uptrading and bundling of value-added services. We cut our FY27 revenue and ebitda estimates by 1-2 per cent led by delays in the tariff hike and rising share of M2M subs in the mix. We Jio Platforms IPO is imminent and its valuations remain a key near-term monitorable," it added with a 'buy' and target price of Rs 1,625 on RIL.

Goldman Sachs has the highest price target on India's largest conglomerate led by Mukesh Ambani. It has set its target at Rs 1,910 for RIL, which implies an upside potential of 45 per cent from Monday's levels. Nomura maintained a 'buy' rating on RIL with a price target of Rs 1,680, stating that all eyes are now on the Jio IPO, which remains a key share price catalyst.

Jio remains the key anchor, delivering 11 per cent Ebitda CAGR over FY26-28E, supported by ARPU expansion to Rs 225 and margin improvement to 53 per cent, even as subscriber additions normalise said Equirus Securities and said that Jio IPO was  Described as 'fairly imminent' and  significant preparatory work done. It has an 'add' rating on RIL with a target price of Rs 1,511.

The brokerage cited AI-first network automation, proprietary beamformed cell design for high-density locations, non-line-of-sight AirFiber working at scale, enterprise managed connectivity solutions gaining traction, Jio PC for SMBs, and leveraging distribution for digital platforms like Gemini and Jio Hotstar as key Initiatives for the digital business.

"Key monitorables are normalization of crude logistics, clarity on timeline of IPO of Digital Services (Telecom), and commissioning of petchem/ new energy projects, said Elara Capital, which introduced FY29E" said Elara Capital, which has revised its rating on Reliance to 'buy' with a target price of Rs 1,717.