RIL shares jump, add Rs 37,000 crore in m-cap: Q1 results 2026 preview

Ahead of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL)'s June quarter results due later in the day, the most-valued stock on Dalal Street advanced 2.38 per cent to hit a high of Rs 1,323.80 apiece, adding Rs 37,000 crore to its market capitalistaion. RIL commanded an m-cap of R 17,86,836.41 crore intraday compared with Rs 17,49,757.26 crore in the previous session.

Brokerages largely expected the Mukesh Ambani-led oil-to-telecom major to report single-digit profit growth, with strength in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C), Retail and Jio businesses partly offsetting weakness in the upstream segment.

Antique Stock Broking expects RIL to report 8.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit at Rs 19,566 crore on 34.7 per cent YoY jump in sales Rs 3,34,908 crore. RIL's Ebitda is seen rising 12 per cent YoY or 8.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to Rs 48,100 crore, supported by growth across all major segments except upstream. 

Segment-wise Q1 expectations

Nomura estimated steady 80 lakh subscriber addition for Jio Platforms, which may take total subscribers to 53.2 crore in Q1. It sees a modestly higher ARPU of Rs 217 per month against Rs 214 per month in Q4. Growth for Reliance Retail is likely improved slightly in Q1, with retail revenue pegged at Rs 94,100 crore (up 12 per cent YoY) and Ebitda at Rs 6600 crore (up 3 per cent YoY), the foreign brokerage said.

"We estimate O2C Ebitda at R 15,000 crore for Q1, up 3 per cent QoQ. The refinery turnaround may more than offset strong refining margins, and higher petchem prices. 1QFY27 O2C business continued to be impacted by increased refinery LPG output according to government guidance, fuel retailing loss, and K-G gas being diverted to other sectors," Nomura said.

Antique said Retail Ebitda may grow 7 per cent YoY. Upstream is expected to be the only weak segment, with Ebitda declining due to lower KG-D6 gas production volumes, it said.  

"O2C EBITDA is expected to rise 25 per cent QoQ, driven by stronger GRMs and improved petrochemical spreads. Jio Ebitda is likely to increase 2.4 per cent QoQ, supported by subscriber additions of 70 lakh and a marginal improvement in ARPU to Rs 215 (vs Rs 214 in 4QFY26)," Antique said.

Net profit, Ebitda, net sales estimates

Emkay Global expects RIL to report 2.8 per cent YoY drop in net profit at Rs 17,567 crore on 38.9 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 3,38,420 crore. Ebitda is seen rising 4.9 per cent YoY to Rs 45,013 crore while Ebitda margin is pegged at 13.3 per cent, down 431 basis points (bps) YoY or 171 bps QoQ. 

Emkay expects O2C Ebitda to rise 2 per cent QoQ to Rs 14,800 crore. Upstream Ebitda is seen falling 5 per cent QoQ to Rs 3,960 crore; Retail Ebitda is seen rising 1 per cent QoQ to Rs 6,990 crore. Jio's average revenue per user (ARPU) is seen rising 1 per cent QoQ, with subscribers addition likely at 95 lakh in Q1FY27. 

"Reliance Industries' Q1 Ebitda is estimated to increase 8.9 per cent QoQ to Rs 48,100 crore (up 12 per cent YoY), supported by growth across all major segments except upstream. O2C EBITDA is expected to rise 25 per cent QoQ, driven by stronger GRMs and improved petrochemical spreads. Jio Ebitda is likely to increase 2.4 per cent QoQ, supported by subscriber additions of 70 lakh and a marginal improvement in ARPU to Rs 215 (vs Rs 214 in 4QFY26)," ICICI Securities said. 

This brokerge expects retail Ebitda to grow at 7 per cent YoY to Rs 6,830 crore, with Upstream the only weak segment, with Ebitda seen declining due to lower KG-D6 gas production volumes.

Elara, which sees RIL's Q1 profit rising 2.4 per cent to Rs 18,512 crore, said RIL consolidated Ebitda may grow 8 per cent YoY, led by an Ebitda growth of 12 per cent in digital services (telecom) and 10 per cent in retail, while oil -to-chemicals Ebitda is likely to be flat YoY, and E&P Ebitda likely to drop 21 per cent. This brokerage sees RIL's Q1 gross refning margin (GRM) at $23 per barrel vs an estimated $12 per barrel in Q1FY26.

Kotak Institutional Equities, meanwhile, expects adjusted net income at Rs 19,004 crore. It said the O2C segment will likely benefits from strong SEZ refinery earnings, US ethane based petchem, and weak rupee. It sees a relatively muted retail business with 12 per cent YoY revenue growth, and weak oil & gas business on declining production.