SBI Life, Max Financial, HDFC Life & ICICI Pru Life: Nomura shares life insurance sector outlook for 2026

Global brokerage Nomura has shared its latest outlook on India's listed life insurance companies, highlighting growth drivers, cost structures and valuation perspectives across the sector as it looks ahead to 2026.

On SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd, Nomura reiterated its positive stance, citing structural strengths. The brokerage stated: "We reiterate our Buy rating on SBI Life. Our target price of Rs 2,455 offers 19 per cent potential upside (calculated at a market price of Rs 2,067). SBI Life has a lean cost structure and its wide presence across markets will continue to support its volume-led growth despite intensifying competition, in our view. We believe SBI Life deserves to command a premium valuation among listed life insurers."

For Max Financial Services Ltd, Nomura pointed to improving operational metrics. It said: "We see room for improvement in agency productivity. Large presence with web aggregators and continued support from its parent bank are tailwinds to Axis Max Life's strong growth momentum." However, the brokerage noted valuation constraints due to historical factors, adding: "Its valuations have been capped relative to top players as its historical actuarial performance has lagged behind peers."

Overall, Nomura maintained a constructive view, stating: "On the back of likely strong momentum in premium growth and agency productivity, we reaffirm our Buy rating. Our target price of Rs 1,935 implies 16 per cent upside (calculated price of Rs 1,671)."

Nomura struck a cautious tone on HDFC Life Insurance Company Ltd. The brokerage noted: "The second-largest listed player in terms of total APE as per the regulator, has delivered healthy value growth over the past five years but has lagged with volume growth." It highlighted cost pressures, saying: "High-cost structure is a headwind for HDFC Life in its pursuit of targeting customers in deeper geographies."

It currently has a Neutral rating, while adding: "In our view, distribution reforms, if favourable, could open up more markets for HDFC Life. In view of its past record in product innovation we believe a blue sky scenario is likely."

On ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd, it also maintained a Neutral rating. Nomura said: "Not so favourable relationship with parent bank and subsequent need for partnering with many other distributors has deteriorated the expense structure of ICICI Pru Life in the past five years vs a decade ago." It added that distribution reforms could be a potential catalyst, noting: "In our view, ICICI Pru Life can also benefit significantly from distribution reforms, if any."

At a sector level, the brokerage estimates there are 17–22.5 crore owned individual life and credit life/group protect policies, while the target market size of self-reliant 'Atmanirbhar' adults is about 50 crore.