Senco Gold shares tagged 'Buy' after 42% YTD crash; brokerage explains why

Shares of Senco Gold Ltd tumbled 4.60 per cent in Thursday's trade to hit a low of Rs 323.90. The stock was last seen trading 3.68 per cent lower at Rs 327. At this price, it has cracked 41.94 per cent on a year-to-date (YTD) basis.

Antique Stock Broking, in its pre-quarter update, maintained its 'Buy' rating on the counter with a target price of Rs 569. "As per the latest business update from Senco, Q2 FY26 could register a revenue growth of 6.5 per cent YoY despite several factors like a) High base effect, b) Shraddh season in Sept'25, c) Persistent rains and a flood-like situation in the East, and d) Surge in gold price (43 per cent YoY and 8 per cent QoQ). Diamond jewellery sales sustained the momentum with value growth of 12 per cent YoY during Q2 (31 per cent/14 per cent YoY value/ volume growth for H1). Retail sales/SSSG were reported to be 16 per cent/7.5 per cent YoY for H1. The company opened five/ one stores for Senco/Sennes, taking the total count to 184/8, respectively," the domestic brokerage stated.

"Festive campaigns (launched during Q2), peak festive and wedding season are likely to support continued demand through H2. Management remains confident of 18-20 per cent revenue growth for FY26. Senco could likely surpass their target to add 20 stores in FY26 (added 17 in H1), as they expect to launch 7-8 stores during H2. We maintain our estimates and BUY recommendation with a target price of Rs 569, based on 25x P/E on H1 FY28 estimates," it added.

Senco, in its recent business update, mentioned that gold prices in Q2 FY26 reached Rs 1,16,500, the highest-ever recorded, as against Rs 1,00,800 in Q1 FY26 and Rs 75,300 in Q2 FY25.

Sharing the Q3 and FY26 outlook, the Kolkata-based jewellery maker said, "We are firmly on course to achieve our annual target of 20 new showroom openings for FY26. Our growth prospects are supported by a robust pipeline, and we expect to launch about 7~8 showrooms in Q3 and Q4 to meet our target of 20."

As of June 2025, promoters held a 64.38 per cent stake in the company.